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Greek budget forecasts steeper recession, higher deficit

Written By Unknown on Rabu, 31 Oktober 2012 | 18.12

ATHENS | Wed Oct 31, 2012 6:07am EDT

ATHENS Oct 31 (Reuters) - Greece forecast a higher-than-expected budget deficit and a steeper recession next year in its final budget bill presented on Wednesday, as repeated austerity measures take their toll on the economy.

Athens said its 2013 general government deficit would stand at 5.2 percent of gross domestic product, up from a 4.2 percent forecast earlier this month.

Its economy would contract by 4.5 percent in 2013, compared to a previous forecast of 3.8 percent. Public debt was also revised upwards to 189.1 percent of GDP from a 179.3 percent forecast in the draft bill submitted earlier this month.


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WRAPUP 1-Polish, Czech PMIs point to more weakness

By Jan Lopatka

PRAGUE | Wed Oct 31, 2012 6:20am EDT

PRAGUE Oct 31 (Reuters) - Polish and Czech business confidence remained negative in October, reflecting deep gloom in manufacturing sectors suffering from sagging demand in the euro zone and at home.

The figures pointed to an overall economic slowdown in the third quarter in Poland, whose impressive growth has begun to fizzle out, and an extension of the recession that has strangled the Czech economy since the last quarter of 2011.

Poland's purchasing managers index (PMI) inched up to 47.3, beating forecasts of a further decline, but the improvement is coming from September's 38-month trough.

In the neighbouring Czech Republic, the index dropped to 47.2, the worst result since the bottom of the 2009 recession that followed the global downturn after the fall of Lehman Brothers.

The poor readings open the scope for action on the monetary policy front, including the start of rate cuts in Poland, which has so far avoided loosening policy, HSBC economist Agata Urbanska said.

"We expect the central bank to start an interest rate cutting cycle in November," she said.

"The scale of policy easing in this cycle is still an open question as the leading indicators domestically and abroad, among them PMI, still give no indication of the economic slowdown bottoming out in the near future."

The Polish data, while slightly better than last month and above expectations, showed a drop in new export orders to a 40-month low.

Poland had surprised the market by keeping policy on hold last month, when the central bank left rates at 4.75 percent. Analysts expect an at least 25 basis point cut to 4.5 percent at the next central bank meeting on Nov 7.

Economists polled at the beginning of October forecast growth to slow to 2 percent next year -- mild by EU standards but painful for the emerging country that has enjoyed uninterrupted expansion for the last two decades.

In the even more export-driven Czech Republic, the central bank sees the economy contracting 0.9 percent this year.

The PMI drop followed weak flash PMI readings in Germany, where the manufacturing index dropped to 45.7 in October, far below forecasts of 48.0.

"Reasons for pessimism in Czech industry are obvious: it is mainly a concern about developments abroad as the drop in PMI is caused mainly by falling orders, both domestic and from abroad," said David Marek, chief economist at Patria Finance.

"There is a only a small hope that the indicator would get above the 50-point mark by the end of year. It is another signal... for the central bank to continue lowering interest rates, or possibly use interventions to ease monetary policy."

The Czech central bank faces dilemmas over next policy steps after it had cut the main repo rate to an all-time low of 0.25 percent in September.

Most analysts expect the bank to hold on Thursday, with a minority predicting a cut to 0.15 percent.

The bank has said it could use foreign exchange interventions to weaken the crown currency if it needs to relax policy further, in an environment when poor export demand adds on to a domestic drop in spending by budget-cutting government and conservative households.

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EURO GOVT-Bunds pare losses after strong auction

LONDON | Wed Oct 31, 2012 6:39am EDT

LONDON Oct 31 (Reuters) - German Bund futures pared losses on Wednesday after strong bidding at a 30-year bond sale.

December Bund futures were last 12 ticks lower on the day at 141.42, having fallen as low as 141.18 earlier.

Germany sold 1.704 billion euros of bonds maturing in 2044 with investors bidding for 2.7 times the amount of paper on offer, compared with 1.5 times at a similar sale in July.


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UAE govt approves 2013 federal budget, no deficit

Written By Unknown on Selasa, 30 Oktober 2012 | 18.12

DUBAI | Tue Oct 30, 2012 6:15am EDT

DUBAI Oct 30 (Reuters) - The United Arab Emirates government approved a 2013 federal budget with expenditure of 44.6 billion dirhams ($12.1 billion) and no deficit, Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum said on Tuesday.

"There was a meeting of the Council of Ministers. We approved the draft budget for 2013 with total spending of 44.6 billion dirhams, without a deficit," Sheikh Mohammed, who is also Dubai's ruler, wrote on his official Twitter account.

"The government's plan over the coming three years is to spend 133 billion dirhams for strategic plan development," he also said.

The UAE federal budget accounts for only around 11 percent of overall fiscal spending in the UAE, with individual emirates accounting for the rest.


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Want to be Hungarian? Buy some bonds

Tue Oct 30, 2012 6:16am EDT

* Ruling Fidesz proposes offering residency for major investors

* Condition is buying at least 250,000 euros worth of 5-yr bonds

* Chinese investors specifically targeted -lawmaker

By Marton Dunai

BUDAPEST, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Lawmakers in indebted European Union member Hungary are waving the prospect of a passport at well-heeled foreign investors.

Proposed legislation listed on parliament's website would grant permanent residency and ultimately Hungarian citizenship to outsiders who buy at least 250,000 euros ($322,600) worth of special government bonds.

Hungarian passport holders are entitled to live and work throughout the European Union.

The move, backed by the ruling government party, is designed to attract new investors, especially from China.

Hungary has billions of euros worth of foreign currency debt maturing in the next few years and has explored a variety of ways to refinance.

Its plans include selling euro-denominated bonds to domestic buyers and trying to attract major new investors from Asia. Selling debt in western bond markets would happen only after tricky talks with international lenders wrap up, the government has said.

Budapest has asked for a financing backstop from the EU and the International Monetary Fund, but talks are dragging on and analysts see only a 50 percent chance of a deal.

The proposed legislation calls for the debt management office to issue special "residency bonds" to foreigners. Holders of at least a quarter of a million euros' worth of the paper would get preferential immigration treatment.

"The goal of the modification is to create the institution of 'investor residency' in Hungary," the lawmakers who put forth the legislation wrote in their proposal.

"The proposal ties gaining citizenship to buying bonds because it intends to aid state financing this way," they wrote. "Other investments from those applying for such residency could boost the real estate, retail and investment markets."

One of the authors of the proposal said Chinese investors were specifically targeted.

"The Chinese have articulated repeatedly that we should help their Hungarian investments," ruling party lawmaker Mihaly Babak told the daily Nepszabadsag. "If someone is a Hungarian citizen they have more (investment) opportunities."

"The condition of a preferential process is the purchase of 250,000 euros worth of bonds with a five year maturity ... We can attract capital from the so-called Third World this way and also finance reducing state debt."

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UPDATE 1-French minister urges euro zone to start pooling debt

Tue Oct 30, 2012 6:35am EDT

By Stephen Brown and Annika Breidthardt

BERLIN Oct 30 (Reuters) - French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici urged the euro zone on Tuesday to take a first step to mutualise its short-term debt, stopping short of jointly-issued "Eurobonds" which he recognised German Chancellor Angela Merkel's government flatly rejects.

"We are not talking any more about Eurobonds. I know it is a red line here in Germany, for some, the present government among them," Moscovici said at a conference alongside his German counterpart, Wolfgang Schaeuble.

"What I mean is that we need to address together the debt issue, and this must be backed by all 17 members of the euro zone, in order to pool some short-term sovereign funding instruments to build a first step towards some kind of mutualisation of the debt," said Moscovici, speaking in English.

Merkel has categorically ruled out the creation of Eurobonds as long as she is in power, arguing that they remove the incentive for member states to get their own budgets in order. She is expected to seek a third term in power next September.

Moscovici appeared to be endorsing a proposal dating from late 2011 for short-term common debt instruments for the currency zone known as "Eurobills".

The proposal by two economists - one of whom, Thomas Philippon, is now an adviser on Moscovici's staff - involves setting up a new euro zone debt management office.

The right to issue jointly underwritten bills, with less than one year's maturity, would depend on meeting EU deficit targets and economic policy goals.

EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn gave the proposal some traction in a paper a year ago, depicting Eurobills as a stepping stone toward fully fledged "stability bonds". But formal discussion among ministers has met German opposition.

Merkel included Eurobills on a list of ideas that she described as "economically wrong and counterproductive" just before an EU summit in June.

CREDIBILITY BOOST

The French and German ministers both backed the idea of a special budget for the 17 members of the euro zone, alongside the budget for the 27-nation European Union. Moscovici said it would act as "an automatic stabiliser on matters that are key to the success of our monetary union".

"Such a budget would not replicate, in my view, the existing EU 27 budget," said Moscovici.

Schaeuble's proposal for giving radically-expanded powers to veto member states' budgets to Europe's commissioner for monetary affairs won backing this weekend from European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi in a German media interview.

The German minister said giving Rehn the same legal powers as Competition Comissioner Joaquin Almunia, who can veto mergers that inhibit competition on his own authority, "would give much more credibility to the actual implementation of European law".

Moscovici and Schaeuble both urged the European Parliament - whose president, Germany's Martin Shulz, spoke on the same panel in Berlin - to enable its members from euro zone states to act separately on issues affecting the single currency.

This would get around the problem that each major decision by the euro zone requires approval by 17 member states' national parliaments, slowing policymaking, said Schaeuble.

The German and French ministers were due to hold a short private meeting at 11 a.m. (1000 GMT) ahead of a phone call on Wednesday among euro zone ministerial experts about the results of "troika" mission to Greece to check on its reform progress.

Speaking to reporters before the conference, Moscovici declined to go into details about what he and Schaeuble would discuss on Greece, but said: "We are at the moment in the conclusive phase of the negotiations."

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TEXT-S&P assigns prelim ratings to Mythen Re Insurance-linked notes

Written By Unknown on Senin, 29 Oktober 2012 | 18.12

Mon Oct 29, 2012 6:55am EDT

Oct 29 - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today assigned its preliminary issue credit ratings to the class A and C dollar-denominated, variable-rate, principal-at-risk notes to be issued by Mythen Re Ltd., sponsored by Swiss Reinsurance Co. Ltd. (Swiss Re), the ceding reinsurer.

The notes will be exposed to major North Atlantic hurricane risk in selected states within the U.S. between November 2012 and November 2016 (four full hurricane seasons) as modeled by AIR Worldwide Corp. The class A notes will also be exposed to mortality risk in England and Wales between January 2012 and December 2016, as modeled by Risk Management Solutions Inc.

The preliminary ratings are based on the lower of the rating on the catastrophe risk ('B+' for the class A notes and 'B-' for the class C notes); the issuer credit rating on the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD; AAA/Stable/A-1+) as the issuer of the assets in the collateral accounts; and the risk of nonpayment by the ceding reinsurer, Swiss Re (AA-/Stable/A-1+).

RELATED CRITERIA AND RESEARCH

All articles listed below are available on RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal.

-- Mythen Re Ltd., Oct. 29, 2012

-- Methodology And Assumptions For Rating Natural Catastrophe Bonds, May 12, 2009

-- Default Table Used To Rate Insurance-Linked Securitizations Updated, May 8, 2008

-- Guide To Rating Insurance-Linked Mortality Catastrophe Bonds, Sept. 11, 2008

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Merkel aide says new Greek haircut would violate German law

BERLIN | Mon Oct 29, 2012 6:56am EDT

BERLIN Oct 29 (Reuters) - German law would not permit a second debt haircut for Greece while new aid for the struggling euro zone country is being discussed, Chancellor Angela Merkel's spokesman said on Monday.

"German budget law, in article 39, says that credits can only be given when it is considered unlikely that there will be a default," said the chancellor's spokesman Steffen Seibert.

"We would be tying our own hands with such a measure and it would certainly not be in Greece's interests," he told a news conference, responding to questions about a new write-down of Greek debt to enable it to stay in the euro zone.


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RPT-FEATURE-In San Francisco, tech investor leads a political makeover

Mon Oct 29, 2012 7:00am EDT

By Gerry Shih

SAN FRANCISCO Oct 29 (Reuters) - One morning in April, Ron Conway, the billionaire technology investor, sat in a conference room on the second floor of San Francisco's City Hall with about 50 representatives from the city's business community.

On the agenda was a sweeping proposal by Mayor Ed Lee to reform the city's payroll tax, a plan that would favor companies with many employees but little revenue - tech start-ups, namely - while shifting the burden to the real estate and financial industries.

The head of the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce was arguing against the proposal when Conway abruptly cut him off.

"The tech industry is producing all the jobs in this city," Conway snapped, according to four people present, his voice rising as he insisted that old-line businesses "need to get on board."

In the end, they did get on board - and San Francisco voters on Nov. 6 will decide whether to approve the change in the tax code.

Conway's success with the tax initiative demonstrates the profound transformation playing out in San Francisco's business corridors and its halls of power. As start-ups blossom, attracting a wave of entrepreneurs and investment dollars, the tech industry is wielding newfound clout in local politics - largely thanks to Conway, its brash, silver-haired champion.

The shift, local political experts say, harks back to the turn of the last century, when financial institutions like the Bank of Italy - forebear to present-day Bank of America - gradually eroded the railroad barons' grip over California politics.

Now the tech industry, led by Conway, is beginning to overshadow long-dominant local business lobbies, said Chris Lehane, a political consultant and former adviser in the Clinton White House.

"When you have a new business entity that really hasn't existed in the past and becomes a real player in local politics, that changes the balance a bit," said Lehane, who is based in San Francisco. "People like Ron Conway, he's an angel investor in companies but also an angel supporter of politicians he cares about."

Not everyone in this famously liberal city is enthused about the new tech boom, which is driving up rents and threatening to price out all but the wealthy.

"As someone who lived through the tech boom in the '90s and watched countless friends and community members get pushed out of their homes, only for the bubble to disintegrate, this is painful to watch," said Gabriel Haaland, political director for the SEIU Local 1021, the largest union in the city. "Those times are here again."

Last month, when San Francisco Magazine published an article bemoaning tech-driven gentrification, traffic on the magazine's website broke all records.

"It touched on an issue that people have been thinking about for a while," said Jon Steinberg, the magazine's editor.

Conway and Lee make no apologies.

"Tech added 13,000 out of the 25,000 new jobs we created the last couple years, which helped us bring the unemployment rate to the third-lowest in the state," Lee, a Democrat, said in an interview. "We have to work with the new jobs creators, and that's what I believe the public wants me to do."

Conway, who made his name in the 1990s by betting on small, early-stage companies and scoring a huge win with Google , says a key goal of a new civic organization he has started, San Francisco Citizens Initiative for Technology & Innovation, is to provide service jobs in tech for long-term residents and the unemployed.

"It would be great if we could create a few hundred jobs in the $50,000 to $80,000 income bracket," said Conway. "We're here to improve the living conditions for all of San Francisco. That's the responsibility tech wants to take."

ODD COUPLE

Conway and Lee have an exceptionally close relationship, one that has captivated the city's political set even while attracting accusations of favoritism from the mayor's rivals.

The two make an odd couple. Lee was a publicity-shy city bureaucrat and civil rights lawyer for decades before being named caretaker mayor of this Democratic bastion in 2011 after his predecessor was elected lieutenant governor. Conway, until recently a registered Republican, counts Tiger Woods and Henry Kissinger among his investors and considers a start-up tour with Ashton Kutcher in tow just another day's work.

In a city that faces chronic budget deficits even as it enjoys a comparatively strong economy, the relationship is symbiotic. Conway taps his access to Lee to promote his companies, from Twitter to Zynga to Airbnb; Lee persuades Conway to rally tech leaders to help fund the police, the schools, the parks.

Their alliance began only last year. As interim mayor, Lee impressed Conway when he pushed through a tax exemption for Twitter, which had considered moving out of the city to avoid the tax bill that would have resulted from an initial public offering. San Francisco imposes a 1.5 percent payroll tax on local companies, a levy that applies to any gains in an IPO.

When Lee ran for a full four-year term several months later, Conway formed an independent political action committee on his behalf. He rustled up almost $700,000 from the likes of entrepreneur Sean Parker; Zynga CEO Mark Pincus; Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff; venture capitalists John Doerr and Tom Byers; and Credit Suisse banker Bill Brady.

He also enlisted Portal A, a video production outfit consisting of three twentysomething hitmakers, to create a YouTube video that featured rapper MC Hammer, Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer and San Francisco Giants pitcher Brian Wilson dancing on Conway's rooftop. The clip went viral and effectively drowned out ads from Lee's rivals.

A year later, Conway rated the mayor's performance a "9.5 out of 10."

"I have a tremendous respect for Mayor Lee," he said. "He listens to people. He builds consensus, and that's an improvement from the past."

Conway said he and Lee are "too busy with our day jobs" to socialize frequently. Neither likes to publicly discuss their relationship. But when the mayor turned 60 in May, Lee and his family sat down for a three-hour private dinner with Conway and his wife, Gayle, at an Italian restaurant in North Beach, according to the San Francisco Chronicle's gossip columnists.

For Conway - whose calls to the mayor's office are considered the highest priority, City Hall insiders say - no issue facing his portfolio companies is too insignificant for him to get involved. In one instance this year, after social media company Pinterest moved to San Francisco, Conway pressed officials to repaint curbs to allow employee parking near the start-up's offices, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. The city refused; Conway denied that the incident occurred.

While some cities have cracked down on services like Airbnb, which lets residents rent out spare bedrooms and can run afoul of local lodging ordinances, Lee has taken the opposite tack. This year he formed a policy-making group to consider how to regulate and foster such companies, which are part of what's known in Silicon Valley as the "sharing economy."

The mayor has also urged Conway to help city initiatives. Conway recently contributed $100,000 toward a campaign to approve bonds to restore the city's parks, and gave $25,000 to a charity founded by Lee that funds impoverished public schools. When a group of software developers tried recently to create an app that would improve public bus performance but lacked funds for a pilot program, SF Citi stepped in and cut a check.

Lee said he hoped Conway would fill a void left by recently deceased philanthropists such as Gap Inc founder Don Fisher, real estate mogul Walter Shorenstein and private equity investor Warren Hellman.

"The tech guys like Conway usually want to meet presidents and such. You never see them play so deep in local government," said one Democratic fundraiser. "It's unusual."

But the tech world says the headlong plunge into local politics is classic Conway.

"When Ron is passionate about an issue or a company or a person, it's never a secret," said Twitter CEO Dick Costolo. "He's passionate about San Francisco right now, and it's exhibiting itself in the way he helps companies in the city, the way he helps the city. It's fantastic to see."

CHANGING TAX POLICY

Conway says his top priority is passage of the payroll tax reform initiative on Nov. 6.

The measure would tax local businesses based on their gross receipts instead of the size of their payroll, which benefits low-revenue, high-headcount companies like startups. Financial, insurance and real estate companies would see their local taxes rise by 30 percent, while taxes will remain flat for most scientific and technical companies.

Crucially, the measure would also mean that proceeds from an IPO would not be subject to taxes.

Landlords, and to a lesser extent financial services companies, conceded that they had lost their first political fight with the tech industry, but took the long view.

"We knew we were going to be socked in a big way, and we worked early and long and hard with the city for a rate that was fair," said Ken Cleaveland of the Building Owners and Managers Association. "In the end it wasn't in our best interest to fight our tenants."

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FEATURE-Poland stumbles on journey from low-cost to hi-tech

Written By Unknown on Minggu, 28 Oktober 2012 | 18.12

Sun Oct 28, 2012 6:00am EDT

* Poland is EU's growth leader but lags on innovation

* Low-cost economic model running out of steam

* Creating hi-tech economy key to long-term prosperity

By Marcin Goettig

WARSAW, Oct 28 Reuters) - Polish scientist Miroslaw Grudzien built the infra-red detectors that NASA uses to explore Mars, but getting a business development loan nearly defeated him.

His firm, which made sensors on the U.S. space agency's Mars rover Curiosity, sought financing from banks for a new production facility. Because the loan was to be partly paid back from European Union funds, the government had to sign off on it.

In the end, Grudzien got his money, but it took a year, forcing his company, VIGO System, to delay the launch of a new range of high-technology sensors.

"Civil servants do not care if I get the credit today, in a year or in three years. They do not have a clue that in modern technologies one year of delay in financing can mean defeat," Grudzien, the firm's chief executive, said.

Such stories are common in Poland. The biggest economy in eastern Europe, it has seen two decades of vigorous economic growth and yet -- based on several different measurements -- is one of Europe's least innovative economies.

Up to now, that has not been a problem. It has thrived on attracting low-value-added businesses such as television assembly plants and off-shore accounting- and call-centres.

However, that type of economy depends on low costs. This advantage is being eroded by rising living standards which last year reached 65 percent of the EU average.

Long-term, underlying growth, meanwhile, has already slowed to 3 percent from 6-7 percent four years ago, the central bank estimates.

To compete in the future, Poland will need to replace its low costs with innovation.

The government says it is working on that. "The time has come to invest more heavily in policies that support development ... the state will stimulate these policies very heavily," said Science and Higher Education Minister Barbara Kudrycka.

But Poland has a long way to travel if it is to catch up on its more innovative competitors.

It filed 8 patents per million citizens to the European Patent Office in 2010, Eurostat data show, one more than Greece's 7 and compared with an average of 108 in the whole European Union and 266 in Germany.

Unless Poland turns itself into an innovative, knowledge economy, it risks heading down the same path as Spain, Greece, or Portugal, said Maciej Bukowski, head of the Warsaw-based Institute for Structural Research (IBS).

Those countries experienced rapid growth but failed to shift in time the structure of their economies away from low-cost industries. Now they are wealthier and their costs have gone up, they struggle to find a niche in the world economy.

"These counties share a few characteristics. One is a very low level of research and development spending and innovation in general. Another is a bad regulatory environment and the third one is a rigid labour market," Bukowski said.

"Poland has all those three characteristics... This is something that the politicians do not take account of."

PRIORITIES

The statistics show just how poor Poland - in common with many of its neighbours in eastern Europe - is at innovation.

Poland ranked as the EU's third least innovative economy in 2012, with a worse result recorded only by Greece and Romania, a report by World Intellectual Property Organisation's showed.

The country spent 0.74 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) on research and development (R&D) in 2010, much less than the 2 percent on average in the EU.

People involved in Polish science say when Communist rule collapsed two decades ago and was replaced by a market economy, few people wanted to invest in research projects that might never make money when they could just import foreign technology.

The result now is a system that fails to support innovation: Universities do not cooperate well with business, the state does not encourage companies to take risks by developing their own technology, and thickets of red tape stifle activity.

Zbigniew Luczynski, the head of the Institute of Electronic Materials Technology (ITME), a state-owned research centre, has spent years wrestling with these problems.

His institute discovered a new method to produce the one-atom thick film of carbon known as graphene, which was classified as one of the nine most interesting findings in the field in 2010-2011 by technology consultancy Future Markets.

The material is stronger than diamond, transparent and conducts electricity, which could make it a perfect material for touch screens for smartphones.

Luczynski described how his institute has been seeking for nearly two years to get state funding for equipment to help with research on graphene.

And he said his institute was barred by the Economy Ministry, which oversees it, from entering a joint-venture with a foreign investor to commercialise graphene.

"It is a choice of the state, whether the things we do have an impact on the economy. For now it seems the state does not really care," Luczynski said in his office in the institute.

Asked by Reuters about the delay in funding, the Science Ministry said it had given ITME around 60 million zlotys ($19.06 million) for research programmes and equipment. The Economy Ministry said it blocked the venture because the agreement to set it up contained legal irregularities.

Kudrycka, the science and higher education minister, told Reuters the government was doing something about the problem.

Warsaw plans to increase research and development spending to 1.7 percent of GDP by 2020, a more than twofold rise though still below the EU's three percent target. The state has promised to spend 10 billion zlotys between now and 2015 on scientific infra-structure.

The government has also announced a 1 billion zlotys research programme into shale gas extraction, and Kudrycka said firms should be able to write-off 1 percent of their tax bill from 2014 if they direct the money to research.

"I cannot say that this is a civilisational leap, but regulatory and systemic changes will allow Poland to surprise many countries. This requires five, maybe 10 years," Kudrycka said.

BRAIN DRAIN

Shortcomings in the education system are a big part of Poland's lack of innovation.

Poland's best universities rank outside the top three hundred academic institutions globally, the Academic Ranking of World Universities shows. Many of the most promising researchers take posts at universities abroad.

"I'm afraid that if I returned here it would mean an end of my academic career," said Karolina Safarzynska, a Polish economist working at the Vienna University of Economics.

"Publishing articles in local science journals is not enough" she said. "The Polish educational system promotes mediocrity and conformism."

Salaries also offer little incentive to pursue a scientific career in Poland.

"I did not consider staying in Poland for my PhD studies because of financial grounds," said Marta Luksza, a computational biologist who graduated from Warsaw University, earned a PhD in Berlin and now works at Columbia University in the United States.

"Back then you received 1,000 zlotys per month and you also had to teach students. In Germany you received 1,300 euros, but you were not required to teach and could cover your expenses with this money."

One of the most vocal supporters in Poland of a more innovation-centred economy in Michal Boni, minister for administration and digitalisation.

His job includes trying to get internet technology into schools and offices and encouraging firms to embrace the knowledge economy. Yet even he expresses frustration at the slow pace of change.

"I think that Polish political elites have not grown up enough to place innovation at the centre stage. Our political debates resemble those from the 1960s. Nobody debates such issues here," he said in an interview.

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Greek editor's arrest sought over list with Swiss accounts

ATHENS | Sat Oct 27, 2012 7:46pm EDT

ATHENS Oct 28 (Reuters) - Greek police are seeking to arrest the editor of a weekly magazine for publishing a list of more than 2,000 names of wealthy Greeks who have placed money in Swiss bank accounts, police said on Saturday.

The so-called "Lagarde List" - given to Greece by French authorities in 2010 with names to be probed for possible tax evasion - has been a topic of heated speculation in Greek media in recent weeks. It is named after International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde, who was French finance minister when the list was handed over.

The "Hot Doc" magazine published the list of 2,059 names including some well-known figures on Saturday. The magazine said it had been sent the list anonymously. Authorities did not confirm if the list was authentic.

A prosecutor ordered the arrest of editor Costas Vaxevanis for violating laws on releasing private data, police said.

"The prosecutor issued a warrant for Vaxevanis's arrest because he published a list of names without special permission and violated the law on personal data," a police official said.

"There is no proof that the persons or companies included in that list have violated the law. There is no evidence that they violated the law on tax evasion or money laundering," the official added.

The list has inspired heated discussion in near-bankrupt Greece, where public anger at politicians and the wealthy elite grows as austerity measures take a toll on the poorer sections of society.

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UPDATE 1-Ukraine votes, Yanukovich's party expected to keep majority

Sun Oct 28, 2012 6:02am EDT

* Yanukovich's main rival in jail as vote goes ahead

* His Regions party likely to secure slim majority

* But faces new opposition force led by popular boxer

* Observers will pronounce on whether vote free and fair

By Richard Balmforth and Olzhas Auyezov

KIEV, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Ukrainians voted on Sunday in an election that President Viktor Yanukovich's pro-business ruling party seemed likely to win, but it may now face a re-energised opposition which has promised to fight growing authoritarianism and corruption.

With Yanukovich's main rival, Yulia Tymoshenko, in jail and with the West seeing the poll as a test of Ukraine's commitment to democracy, interest will focus on the judgment that international monitors will hand down on Monday.

The former Soviet republic of 46 million is more isolated internationally than it has been for years. Tymoshenko's continued imprisonment has put it at odds with the United States and European Union, while Russia turns a deaf ear to Kiev's calls for cheaper gas.

At home, the government's popularity has been hit by tax and pensions policies and a failure to stamp out corruption, prompting it to shy away from painful reforms that could secure much-needed IMF lending to shore up an export-driven economy.

Despite this and growing apathy among an electorate tired of political bickering, opinion polls have shown Yanukovich's Party of the Regions leading the joint opposition, which includes Tymoshenko's Batkivshchyna (Fatherland) party, and a liberal party headed by boxing champion Vitaly Klitschko.

Commentators expect Regions, bankrolled by industrialists and drawing on state resources, to keep a majority in the 450-seat assembly with support possibly from communists and some independents.

"We have rebuilt the country, we have achieved stability," Mykola Azarov, prime minister and formal leader of the Regions, told a close-of-campaigning rally on Friday.

Even if it wins, Regions faces a tougher time in parliament.

Klitschko, the WBC world heavyweight champion, who heads the UDAR (Punch) party, says he will team up with the opposition led by former economy minister Arseny Yatsenyuk to fight corruption which they say deters entrepreneurial spirit and foreign investment.

From her jail in Kharkiv in Ukraine's northeast, Tymoshenko issued a statement that Yanukovich, who comes up for re-election in 2015, would set up a "dictatorship and never again give up power by peaceful means".

Tymoshenko was jailed for seven years last year for abuse of office relating to a 2009 gas deal with Russia which she made when she was prime minister. The Yanukovich government says the agreement saddled Ukraine with an enormous price for gas supplies.

Voters' frustration with both the current and the previous cabinets plays into the hands of Klitschko as a newcomer.

"I voted for UDAR as it is a new force," said Valentyn, 45, as he walked out of a polling station in Kiev. "I am sick of the old ones. Something needs to be changed."

"We have seen some parties in power and others as well," said Tetyana, 27, referring to Batkivshchyna and the Regions. "We have seen the results."

Even in Donetsk, Yanukovich's main stronghold in the east of the country, many voters said they were disillusioned by the record of the government.

"I voted for the Regions Party but simply because it is the lesser of the evils. I can't say I am a great fan of the Regions, but all the rest are worse," said 58-year-old Viktor Grigoryev, a head of section in the construction sector.

"They (the Regions) have the experience of working in posts of responsibility and have proven they can do things," he added.

Viktoriya, aged 45, who works in the state housing sector, said she had also voted for the Regions and applauded the development during the June Euro-2012 soccer championship.

"They built an airport in Donetsk, carried out the Euro football here. They added to my Mum's pension. All the 'orange' people used to do was talk but do nothing," she said referring to previous governments of the jailed Tymoshenko.

RUSSIAN LANGUAGE PROMISE

The government raised public sector wages and pensions ahead of the vote, recovering some of its lost support at the cost of widening the budget deficit which tripled year-on-year to $2 billion for the period of January to August. Ukraine's economy is vulnerable to falling demand for steel and other exports.

The Regions has also promised to make Russian an official state language alongside Ukrainian - a move aimed at winning back disenchanted supporters in Russian-speaking areas of the east and south but which alienates many voters elsewhere.

Polling stations opened at 8 a.m. and were to close at 8 p.m (1800 GMT) with exit polls following swiftly afterwards.

Of the 450 seats in the single-chamber parliament, 225 will be filled by voters casting ballots for parties to send candidates from a list.

The other half will be decided by voting for individual candidates on a first-past-the-post basis - a feature re-introduced by the Regions which is assumed to favour the party.

Though results will begin to trickle in almost immediately, an accurate overall picture will emerge only much later on Monday since counts in individual constituencies take longer.

International observers from the OSCE European security and human rights body are due to give their judgment on Monday on how fair and free they perceived the poll to have been.

A positive assessment could improve Yanukovich's image before Ukraine takes over the organisation's chair in January.

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Obama says deficit reduction panel right on revenues, wrong on defense cuts

Written By Unknown on Sabtu, 27 Oktober 2012 | 18.12

WASHINGTON | Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:45pm EDT

WASHINGTON Oct 26 (Reuters) - President Barack Obama said on Friday a bipartisan panel's deficit reduction recommendation went too far on spending cuts, especially for defense, but set the right tone by also proposing revenue increases.

Obama said the plan put forward by the bipartisan Simpson-Bowles commission - and held out by some as a model compromise that distributes the pain evenly - cut defense spending too deeply.

"They wanted ... defense cuts that were steeper than I felt comfortable with as commander in chief," he said.

The president, who is in a tight re-election battle with Republican challenger Mitt Romney, said he would be eager to re-engage congressional Republicans in negotiations to achieve a broad deficit reduction deal right away. A deal could be accomplished in as little as four months, he said.

"I've said to folks, I'll wash (House Speaker) John Boehner's car, I'll walk (Republican Senate leader) Mitch McConnell's dog, I'll do whatever is required to get this done," Obama said in an interview with radio host Michael Smerconish that was released on Friday.

"The key that the American people want from us right now is for us to tackle some big challenges that we face in a common-sense, balanced, sensible way," the president said.

Whatever the outcome of the Nov. 6 election, the United States faces a sharp fiscal tightening at the end of the year. Unless Congress and the administration act, $109 billion in spending cuts are due to go into effect and tax rates will rise.

Both Obama and Republicans say they want to avoid the "fiscal cliff." But Democrats want to limit spending cuts in social welfare programs and Republicans object to letting tax rates rise for those earning above $250,000 a year.

Obama also said eliminating the popular tax deductions for interest paid on home loans or for charitable gifts, as the proposal suggests, goes "too far."

His own proposal took the basic framework of the Simpson-Bowles plan and "tweaked it," he said.

Obama raised the possibility this week that if re-elected, he would take another run at the "grand bargain" that eluded Washington in 2011. The goal of such a deal would be to achieve $4 trillion in deficit reduction over 10 years.

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Obama administration looking at new tax cut -Washington Post

WASHINGTON | Fri Oct 26, 2012 11:04pm EDT

WASHINGTON Oct 26 (Reuters) - The Obama administration is considering a possible tax cut that would increase workers' take-home salaries and replace the payroll tax reduction set to expire at the end of the year, The Washington Post reported on Friday.

Citing sources familiar with the administration's thinking, the newspaper said the new tax reduction could add hundreds of dollars to employees' annual pay and show up in every paycheck.

The Post said the administration believed the economy could use further stimulus despite signs of improvement.

Obama is locked in a tight re-election battle with Republican challenger Mitt Romney in which the struggling economy is the main issue. Obama has proposed letting Bush-era tax cuts expire for the wealthy, but Romney has said tax increases would damage the economy.

The payroll tax first implemented in 2011 at Obama's request was designed to help provide people an economic cushion, but critics have questioned relying on a measure that cuts funds from the Social Security retirement system.

The Post said the Obama administration wanted to match the benefits of the payroll tax reduction without tapping into Social Security revenues.

Regardless of the election outcome, the country faces a "fiscal cliff" of automatic across-the-board spending cuts and tax increases for the end of the year unless the White House and Congress can strike a deficit reduction deal.

Obama told the Des Monies Register on Tuesday that he was confident that if re-elected, he would secure within six months a deficit-reduction deal with Republicans equivalent to the "grand bargain" he failed to achieve last year.

The goal of such a deal would be to achieve $4 trillion in deficit reduction over 10 years.

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UPDATE 1-Obama administration looking at new tax cut -Washington Post

Sat Oct 27, 2012 12:11am EDT

WASHINGTON Oct 26 (Reuters) - The Obama administration is considering a possible tax cut that would increase workers' take-home salaries and replace the payroll tax reduction set to expire at the end of the year, The Washington Post reported on Friday.

Citing sources familiar with the administration's thinking, the newspaper said the new tax reduction could add hundreds of dollars to employees' annual pay and show up in every paycheck.

The White House said no new tax policy suggestion had been formulated.

"There's no specific new proposal such as this one at this time," a White House official said.

"The very first thing Congress should do is the House needs to follow the Senate's lead and pass the bill the president proposed to ensure taxes don't go up on 98 percent of Americans at the beginning of next year," the official added.

The Post said the administration believed the economy could use further stimulus despite signs of improvement.

Obama is locked in a tight re-election battle with Republican challenger Mitt Romney in which the struggling economy is the main issue. Obama has proposed letting Bush-era tax cuts expire for the wealthy, but Romney has said tax increases would damage the economy.

The payroll tax first implemented in 2011 at Obama's request was designed to help provide people an economic cushion, but critics have questioned relying on a measure that cuts funds from the Social Security retirement system.

The Post said the Obama administration wanted to match the benefits of the payroll tax reduction without tapping into Social Security revenues.

Regardless of the election outcome, the country faces a "fiscal cliff" of automatic across-the-board spending cuts and tax increases for the end of the year unless the White House and Congress can strike a deficit reduction deal.

Obama told the Des Monies Register on Tuesday that he was confident that if re-elected, he would secure within six months a deficit-reduction deal with Republicans equivalent to the "grand bargain" he failed to achieve last year.

The goal of such a deal would be to achieve $4 trillion in deficit reduction over 10 years.

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EURO GOVT-Gloomy corporate news boosts Bunds before U.S. data

Written By Unknown on Jumat, 26 Oktober 2012 | 18.12

Fri Oct 26, 2012 6:50am EDT

* U.S. earnings, French bank downgrades underpin Bunds

* Data on U.S. growth due later in the day

* Bunds seen sticking to recent tight ranges

* Tentative signs of normalization - but for how long?

By Ana Nicolaci da Costa

LONDON, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Bund futures rose on Friday as lacklustre corporate earnings, downgrades to French banks' ratings and record unemployment in Spain highlighted the pitfalls still facing the global economy.

Results from global giants Apple and Amazon undershot expectations overnight, while in Europe, Renault, Saint Gobain, Gucci and Publicis weighed in with gloomy earnings and outlooks, putting downward pressure on European stocks.

Standard & Poor's cut the rating of French banks including BNP Paribas - a stark reminder of the problems still besetting the euro zone's second largest economy - but French yields showed little reaction.

The bout of negative news whet appetite for safe-haven Bunds but they were seen trading within recent tight ranges ahead of U.S. third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data later in the day.

"Not only the corporate news but the economic data continue to be quite weak," Ricardo Barbieri, strategist at Mizuho said.

Other data showed French consumer confidence fell in October to its lowest level in nine months, while in Italy, manufacturing business morale unexpectedly fell in October due to worsening outlook for order levels.

"Overall I think it's a confirmation that Q4 is highly likely to see a larger contraction in GDP than Q3 and we don't have as yet anything pointing to a recovery in Q1 of next year," Barbieri added.

German Bund futures rose 53 ticks to 140.93 pushing 10-year yields down 5.1 basis points to 1.53 percent.

Borrowing costs over ten years rose as far as 1.625 percent in the previous session but market participants say there tends to be buying above 1.60 percent.

"When we get to bond yields above 1.6 (percent) there is clearly interest in extending positions in Germany," Barbieri said referring to the practice of buying longer-dated bonds.

U.S. growth is expected to have picked up to an annualised 1.9 percent from 1.3 percent in the previous quarter, according to a Reuters poll.

But even such a rise would not be considered enough to make much of a dent in unemployment, leaving in place doubts about the economy that have underpinned safe haven bonds and kept the Federal Reserve buying Treasuries.

French 10-year yields fell 1.6 bps to 2.13 percent.

HOUSE OF CARDS? Promises of European Central Bank support, should a country like Spain ask for aid, has been a key factor keeping sovereign debt of both triple-A rated and lower-rated issuers in tight ranges.

Investors have been reluctant to make big bets, for fear of being caught off guard should Spain seek help and trigger the ECB's bond-buying program.

This prospect has also contributed to tentative signs of normalization in sovereign debt markets.

The funding costs of both Spain and Italy have come down sharply, and data from the European Central Bank on Thursday showed consumers and firms put money back into Spanish and Greek banks in September. There are also budding signs that foreign investors are venturing back to the Spanish sovereign debt market.

As one trader this week put it, the market is "healing": "Liquidity is coming back, liquidity meaning the market can digest larger customer repositioning and flows again," he said.

But Spanish 10-year yields were higher on Friday, rising 4.8 basis points to 5.67 percent as data showed one in four Spanish workers were without a job in the third quarter of this year.

The data highlights the extent to which the recent improvement in Spanish debt markets is based on expectations rather than fundamentals. The grim reality is that Spain for some time to come will remain firmly in the grip of a recession which has undermined its efforts to stabilise public finances.

"That we've seen a little bit of improvement is really built on the assumption, on the expectation that there will be an aid request, that the ECB will start buying bonds and the ESM (euro zone rescue fund) will start buying bonds in the primary market," Elwin de Groot, senior market economist at Rabobank said.

"But it's all in the assumption that it will happen and if there is a risk that it won't happen, then you could easily see the vicious circle return in the market and that's the risk."

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Los Angeles gears up for ballot battle over city pensions

Fri Oct 26, 2012 6:59am EDT

* Referendum would spice up 2013 mayoralty election

* New changes proposed for current city workers

* Los Angeles' annual payments to pension funds rose to $1.2 bln

By Jim Christie

SAN FRANCISCO, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Pension changes recently endorsed by the Los Angeles city council don't go far enough for former Mayor Richard Riordan, who aims to put more aggressive fixes on the city's May 2013 ballot.

A referendum, if 250,000 signatures are collected by the end of the year, will spice up the political campaign to replace the city's Democratic mayor as public pensions have become a hot political topic in California and across the nation. The overhaul backed by the leaders of the second-largest U.S. city includes raising the retirement age for new non-safety workers to 65 from 55 and new formulas to reduce their pension payments. New hires also face higher contributions to help with unfunded pension liabilities.

The changes are estimated to save Los Angeles $4 billion over 30 years, with savings of $30 million to $70 million over the next five years.

Riordan, a former lawyer and businessman turned politician, does not buy these estimates.

The assumed savings rely on shaky assumptions on future investment returns at the city's pensions funds, said Alex Rubalcava, an adviser to the former Republican mayor.

Rubalcava added that the council did not touch the pensions of future police officers, firefighters and utility employees, leaving Los Angeles open for whopping future pension costs.

"The city is in such financial peril that what the city council has proposed is not enough," Rubalcava said.

By contrast, 82-year-old Riordan proposes increased personal pension contributions by current city employees and not counting their salary increases toward pensions until the city's three pension funds are funded.

For future city employees, Riordan proposes that 401(k)-style accounts, similar to private-sector retirement accounts, replace defined-benefit schemes.

Local unions are up in arms.

"It's not a pension plan," said Maria Elena Durazo, Los Angeles County Federation of Labor AFL-CIO executive secretary-treasurer. "It's an anti-worker-having-secure-retirement plan."

FOLLOWING SAN DIEGO, SAN JOSE

Durazo has to set aside her outrage for a few more days as California unions are busy campaigning against Proposition 32, a measure on the state's November ballot that would bar using money from union members' payroll-deducted dues for politics.

That money has helped labor cement its influence in the legislature and gain pull in local politics, including in Los Angeles, California's largest city.

"Right now we have to defeat Prop 32," Durazo said. "Right now we have to keep our eyes on the prize."

Once that battle is over, Los Angeles' unions will begin to combat Riordan, who has warned for two years that the cash-strapped city risks bankruptcy due to rising retiree expenses.

U.S. public employees have traditionally been paid less than private-sector workers but were often compensated with pensions and health benefits in retirement. Their costs are under growing scrutiny as state and local governments contend with ongoing budget troubles exposed during the recent recession.

Two landmark elections this year in California suggest voters are open to tackling pension expenses.

Voters in San Diego and San Jose, the state's second- and third-largest cities respectively, overwhelmingly backed measures in June aimed at reining in pension spending, sending a message to Governor Jerry Brown and fellow Democrats who control the legislature. They followed with an agreement on some state pension reforms.

The mayors of San Diego and San Jose pushed the pension measures with a blunt message: without change, guaranteed pension payments would consume more and more of each city's budget, leaving less for services, which have been slashed in recent years as revenue plunged.

Los Angeles voters can expect a similar message. "We paid very close attention to what both San Diego and San Jose had done," said Rubalcava. He said that Los Angeles' annual contribution to its pension funds has swelled to $1.2 billion from $220 million over the past decade.

A brutal struggle will take shape if Riordan's measure gets on the May ballot, said Raphael Sonenshein of the Pat Brown Institute at California State University, Los Angeles.

"It would be a furious campaign," he said. "It (Los Angeles) is a very strong labor town but labor doesn't always win."

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UPDATE 2-Budget cuts push Spain jobless to 25 pct

Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:56am EDT

* Unemployment rate edges up from 24.6 pct in Q2

* Analyst says could hit 26 pct in 2013

* Austerity measures, recession expected to cast more workers out of job

MADRID, Oct 26 (Reuters) - One in four Spanish workers were without a job in the third quarter of this year, a record high, and further layoffs are likely to follow next year as more of the country's 60 billion euro programme of budget austerity kicks in.

The official numbers follow labour unions call for a general strike for November 14, part of growing protests over cutbacks that many believe have done little to combat the crisis and only served to put more people out of work.

Data from the National Statistics Institute showed the unemployment rate rose to 25.0 percent in the three months from July-September, a level unseen since the Francisco Franco dictatorship ended in the mid-1970s.

That was up from 24.6 percent in the previous quarter, and just below the 25.1 percent consensus forecast. The number of workers without a job stood at 5.8 million.

Only Greece has higher unemployment in the European Union and the data puts further pressure on the government as it battles to control a public deficit to meet Brussels' demands in a recession that shows no sign of letting up.

Spain's financing needs are largely covered for this year, and its cost of borrowing from bond markets has eased significantly since August thanks to the European Central Bank's promise to buy the country's bonds should it call for help.

Yet austerity measures, worth over 60 billion euros by 2014, are likely to crimp growth further, and cast more workers out of a job.

"There is a debate over the optimistic growth outlook for next year by the government, which is given little credibility. Weaker growth than expected, coupled with austerity, could easily see unemployment hit 26 percent next year," said Silvio Peruzzo, economist at Nomura in London.

Government forecasts show the economy contracting next year by 0.5 percent, while a Reuters poll this week showed it shrinking three times that much.

The government expects the economy to shrink 1.5 percent this year, while the official outlook is for the unemployment rate not to fall below 24 percent until 2014.

The economy slipped back into recession at the end of last year. The government says 2013 will be the final year of recession for Spain, a view shared by the euro zone's largest bank Santander.

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TREASURIES-U.S. bonds fall after UK pulls out of recession

Written By Unknown on Kamis, 25 Oktober 2012 | 18.12

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Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:52am EDT

  LONDON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - U.S. benchmark yields struck a  five-week high on Thursday on signs of UK economic recovery and  after the Federal Reserve stuck to its monetary policy,  prompting some Treasury investors to book profits.              * Treasuries extended the previous day's falls, following  British government bonds lower after third-quarter UK growth  beat forecasts.             * The Fed, as expected, held off taking any further easing  steps on Wednesday after it launched a new round of bond  purchases last month. But some investors took this as an  opportunity to push Treasury prices lower to make way on their  books for a $29 billion seven-year note sale later in the day.            * "We had the UK GDP data which was stronger than expected  but 95 percent of the selling (in Treasuries) had already taken  place before the data as a strong figure was anticipated," a  trader said.            * "We got nothing new from the Fed last night, which is what   was expected, but maybe the guys (were) a bit too complacent  being long and so are scaling back ... It will be very  interesting to see when New York comes in if guys buy this dip."            * Benchmark 10-year T-note yields were last at  1.84 percent, their highest since Sept. 17 after breaking the  200-day moving average of 1.805 percent.            * The 30-year T-bond yield was up 3.5 bps to  2.989 percent. The long-dated bonds sharply underperformed  shorter-dated maturities on Wednesday on some disappointment  that the Fed did not announce an extension of Treasury purchases  beyond year-end.            * "We expect the Fed to announce a continuation of Treasury  purchases beyond year-end and ... therefore expect the  steepening of the curve to reverse," Barclays Capital  strategists said in a note.            *  Some in the market were also keeping an eye on the U.S.  presidential race which is too close to call. A victory by  Republican candidate Mitt Romney is seen by many as negative for  bonds, as it could spur a rally in shares on hopes of  business-friendly policies. It could raise doubts on the Fed's  commitment to aggressive easing as many Republicans oppose  quantitative easing.  
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TEXT-S&P summary: Interxion Holding N.V.

Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:56am EDT

Oct 25 -

===============================================================================

Summary analysis -- Interxion Holding N.V. ------------------------ 25-Oct-2012

===============================================================================

CREDIT RATING: B+/Stable/-- Country: Netherlands

Primary SIC: Communications

services, nec

===============================================================================

Credit Rating History:

Local currency Foreign currency

16-Feb-2010 B+/-- B+/--

02-Feb-2010 B-/-- B-/--

===============================================================================

Rationale

The rating on Dutch data center operator Interxion Holding N.V. (Interxion) reflects Standard & Poor's Ratings Services' view of the group's "highly leveraged" financial risk profile and its "fair" business risk profile.

The highly leveraged financial risk profile primarily factors in our view that the large capital investments associated with Interxion's expansion plans will keep the group's free operating cash flow (FOCF) generation negative over the medium term (next two to three years) and potentially require additional debt financing. However, the group benefits from strong and predictable underlying funds from operations (FFO) through its significant recurring revenues and strong profit margins.

The fair business risk profile reflects our opinion that the competitive environment in which Interxion operates could lead to meaningful shifts in the supply-demand dynamics of the data center and co-location market over the medium term. These potential variations could increase pressure on the group's operating margins, owing to its inherently high operating leverage, and on cash flow generation. However, this is offset in part by Interxion's status as one of the few carrier-neutral data center providers with a presence in most European communications hubs; moderate barriers to entry in the industry; and currently favorable supply-demand dynamics. The latter are driven by the limited amount of space available in key Internet hub locations; growth in Internet traffic and communications volumes in general; and limited penetration, so far, of outsourced data centers in Europe.

S&P base-case operating scenario

We continue to anticipate that Interxion's percentage revenue growth for full-year 2012 will be in the low teens on the back of strong reported year-on-year revenue growth of 13% in the second quarter of 2012. The chief growth drivers are the group's strong investment in additional capacity and its resilient capacity utilization levels due to supportive demand dynamics. The group's reported EBITDA margin of 40% on June 30, 2012 (on a 12-month rolling basis), is consistent with our forecast of about 40% for 2012. We see potential further improvement in reported EBITDA margins to around 41% in 2013.

S&P base-case cash flow and capital-structure scenario

We believe that Interxion's expansion plans will continue to require significant capital spending, resulting in negative FOCF over the medium term. In 2011, the group's tangible and intangible capital expenditures (capex) of EUR162 million exceeded operating cash flow by almost EUR100 million, by our calculations. We anticipate that FOCF will potentially turn positive in 2015; however, if Interxion's capital spending is higher than we forecast over the coming years, FOCF could stay negative for longer.

We forecast that Interxion's Standard & Poor's-adjusted debt to EBITDA will remain around 4x at year-end 2012 and 2013, compared with 4.2x on Dec. 31, 2011, due to continued EBITDA growth contributed by the group's recently opened data centers. This is despite a continued rise in operating lease commitments following capacity expansion. We capitalize these commitments and include them in Interxion's reported debt according to our methodology. We calculate adjusted leverage on a gross debt basis.

Liquidity

We assess Interxion's liquidity as "adequate" under our criteria. Thisreflects our view that the group's sources of liquidity will cover its uses by at least 1.2x for the next 12 months.

As of June 30, 2012, we estimate Interxion's liquidity sources over the next 12 months to be about EUR231 million. These include:

-- Cash and cash equivalents of about EUR85 million;

-- Forecast FFO of about EUR85 million; and

-- A EUR60 million undrawn committed revolving credit facility (RCF) maturing in May 2016. The credit facility includes financial covenants, under which we project Interxion will maintain adequate headroom.

We estimate Interxion's liquidity needs over the same period to be about EUR190 million, primarily comprising capex, which the group forecasts at about EUR170 million-EUR190 million. We understand that Interxion has favorable working capital dynamics due to its upfront billing and collections, and that the group only faces EUR0.75 million of debt maturities in the next 12 months.

We note that much of the group's capex is tied to data center expansion. This provides some cushion for the group to delay or scale down expansionary capex if industry conditions deteriorate and reduce demand for co-location space, albeit with a likely time lag, in our opinion. Nevertheless, the "adequate" liquidity profile will depend on the group bolstering its balance sheet with additional financing given its anticipated negative consolidated free cash flow generation in the medium term.

Recovery analysis

The issue rating on Interxion's EUR60 million RCF is 'BB'. The recovery rating on this instrument is '1', reflecting our expectation of very high (90%-100%) recovery in the event of a payment default.

The issue rating on the EUR260 million senior secured notes (including the recent tap issuance) is 'BB-'. The recovery rating on these notes is '2', reflecting our expectation of substantial (70%-90%) recovery in the event of a payment default.

The issue and recovery ratings reflect our valuation of Interxion as a going concern, given its leading market position in Europe's key Internet hubs, valuable long-term relationships and contracts with a fragmented and established customer base, and specific industry characteristics such as moderate barriers to entry and the cash-generative nature of the business. Based on our valuation, we estimate Interxion's stressed enterprise value at about EUR380 million. We have pushed back the year of default in our hypothetical default scenario to 2016 from 2015, assuming that the group's expansion plans do not yield the forecast returns, resulting in continued negative cash flows beyond our current estimates.

While cover for the notes nominally exceeds 90%, we maintain a recovery rating of '2' to reflect the risks inherent in Interxion's expansion strategy, which, under our default scenario, might require additional debt financing beyond the existing facilities. This in turn could lower recoveries for noteholders, depending on the extent of additional financing required.

Outlook

The stable outlook reflects our view that Interxion will continue to benefitfrom increased demand for data center capacity, resulting in sustained capacity utilization rates and strong growth in revenues and EBITDA. This should enable the group to maintain adjusted debt to EBITDA of less than 5x over the next 12 months, in our opinion. The stable outlook also factors in Interxion's maintenance of adequate liquidity despite high planned expansionary capex.

We could lower the ratings if Interxion's liquidity weakens in the absence of proactive financing or if pricing pressures erode EBITDA such that the group's adjusted leverage ratio increased to more than 5x, while reducing its FFO in absolute terms. Pricing pressures could arise due to falling capacity utilization rates or shifts in the supply-demand dynamics for data centers in the group's key markets.

The potential for an upgrade of Interxion is limited, in our view, given that we anticipate significant negative FOCF generation through 2014 at least, but this remains highly dependent on the level and timing of expansionary capex. Over time, however, we could consider a positive rating action if Interxion were to approach sustainable positive free cash flow while adjusted leverage remained in the range of 3.5x-4.0x on a sustainable basis. Additionally, an upgrade would hinge on liquidity remaining adequate.

Related Criteria And Research

-- Research Update: Interxion Holding N.V. Outlook Revised To Stable From Negative On Successful IPO; 'B+' Rating Affirmed, March 10, 2011

-- Methodology And Assumptions: Standard & Poor's Standardizes Liquidity Descriptors For Global Corporate Issuers, July 2, 2010

-- Interxion Holding N.V., Feb. 16, 2010

-- 2008 Corporate Criteria: Analytical Methodology, April 15, 2008

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Profit at Santander Brasil declines from year earlier

SAO PAULO | Thu Oct 25, 2012 6:02am EDT

SAO PAULO Oct 25 (Reuters) - Banco Santander Brasil SA reported consolidated net income of 591.5 million reais ($293 million) in the third quarter, compared with net income of 866 million reais a year earlier, according to a securities filing on Thursday.


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BRIEF-Moody's : Outlook for Refining and Marketing industry now stable

Written By Unknown on Rabu, 24 Oktober 2012 | 18.12

Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.

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EURO GOVT-In-demand Bunds rise on glum data

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Wed Oct 24, 2012 6:52am EDT

  * Bunds rally after downbeat Ifo, euro zone PMIs      * Germany sells 3.3 bln euros of 10-yr bonds, demand good      * Spanish yields rise on aid request timing doubts        By Kirsten Donovan      LONDON, Oct 24 (Reuters) - German government bonds rose on  Wednesday as data showed the economic downturn in the euro zone  appeared to be deepening, with souring risk appetite spurring  demand at a 10-year Bund auction.      Businesses in the region suffered their worst month in  October since the bloc emerged from its last recession more than  three years ago, surveys showed, while Germany's  Ifo economic research Institute said the country's business  climate worsened in October.      Bund futures reversed their early losses after the data in a  cautious market.      Sentiment towards the region's peripheral issuers  deteriorated on Tuesday after Moody's cut the credit ratings of  five Spanish regions, pushing bond yields higher, with questions  remaining over when Madrid would ask for a bailout.           "Now the Galician elections are out of the way, it's  possible the markets may react to the ongoing uncertainty as to  when Spain may ask for a bailout," said Rabobank rate strategist  Richard McGuire.      "The path of least resistance then may be for higher Spanish  yields and risk-off to remain in the ascendancy."       Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy had not been expected  to ask for aid - something that would clear the way for the  European Central Bank to buy the country's bonds - before the  elections in his home region last weekend, which his party won.       Spanish bond yields had drifted lower and safe-haven German  Bunds sold off, with the market seemingly prepared to wait for  Rajoy to make his move.       But Spain's 10-year yields have risen around  25 basis points this week and were last one basis points up on  the day at 5.65 percent.      "The Spanish situation is just getting annoying now," one  trader said.       "If Rajoy backs away from a bailout, then the market will  push yields higher but with the (ECB bond buying programme) in  place it makes it very hard to trade to the short side at the  front end of the curve," a second trader said, referring to  placing bets shorter-dated bonds would fall in price.       The first trader said there had been some profit taking by  domestic banks in both Spain and Italy's shorter-dated bonds  after some yields touched multi-month lows last week.       "But some of the big funds are still buying so they're not  down and out yet, and we increasingly feel it's increasingly  different case in Spain and Italy," he said.              BUNDS IN DEMAND      The shift in sentiment boosted demand for German safe-haven  paper with the higher yields now on offer helping the sale of  3.3 billion euros of September 2022 bonds.       The result contrasted with the last two 10-year auctions in  September which failed to attract enough bids to cover the  amount on offer.      "It's a good auction...and was helped by the risk-off  sentiment over the last few days," said Nomura rate strategist  Artis Frankovics.       December Bund futures hit a session high of 140.64  and were last 11 ticks higher at 140.46, having tested an  important technical resistance level.       Technical analysts said they still saw room for further  selling unless the futures contract could rise above the gap  left on price charts at last Wednesday's open. Typically, market  players will try to drive prices to fill these chart gaps.       "Only if prices were to go beyond the price gap that has  recently opened up at 140.59 to 140.63 would potential be  created as far as the July downtrend at 141.79 and the  September/October highs at 141.90-95," technical analysts at  Helaba Landesbank Hessen-Thuringen said.        Benchmark 10-year German bond yields were 2  basis points lower at 1.56 percent.  
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TREASURIES-Treasuries range-bound before Fed, supply

LONDON | Wed Oct 24, 2012 7:01am EDT

LONDON Oct 24 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries were range-bound on Wednesday as the market prepared for more supply and as investors did not expect the Federal Reserve to change its current policy in the last monetary policy meeting before presidential elections.

* U.S. 10-year government bond yields were up 1.6 basis points at 1.78 percent, a whisker away from a 200-day moving average at 1.805 percent. Bonds came under pressure after gaining on Tuesday on strong results in a sale of two-year government debt.

* The Fed appears intent to stick to its bond-buying stimulus with analysts believing it will wait until at least December to make any changes to its current plans to buy $40 billion of mortgage debt per month. The Fed unveiled a third round of bond purchases last month.

* "All eyes are on the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), not that anyone is expecting anything dramatic, but they will want to see what their assessment of the economy is," said Marc Ostwald, strategist at Monument Securities. "The next move, if there is going to be one, is going to be in December."

* He expected 10-year bond yields to be in a 1.6 to 1.85 percent range until after the elections on Nov. 6.

* "I don't think anyone has got much on going into the meeting. It's going to be a non-event," one trader said. "The minutes are going to be interesting because they come after the elections."

* Markets also prepared for more supply after investors scooped up a record 38.2 percent of the two-year note offering on Tuesday, according to U.S. Treasury data. Later on Wednesday, $35 billion of five-year notes will be on offer, followed by $29 billion of seven-year notes on Thursday.

* In the secondary market, five-year government bond yields were up 1.1 basis points at 0.77 percent, while thirty year yields firmed 1.5 bps to 2.92 percent. (Reporting by Ana Nicolaci da Costa/editing by Chris Pizzey, London MPG Desk, +44 (0)207 542-4441)

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EURO GOVT-Spanish yields rise as Moody's downgrades regions

Written By Unknown on Selasa, 23 Oktober 2012 | 18.12

Tue Oct 23, 2012 6:49am EDT

* Catalonia among five Spanish regions whose ratings cut

* Spanish yields to drift higher in absence of aid request

* Bund futures rebound after last week's losses

By Emelia Sithole-Matarise

LONDON, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Spanish bond prices fell on Tuesday after Moody's downgraded five of the country's regions including economically important but deeply indebted Catalonia, while safe-haven German bonds gained.

Moody's, whose surprise decision to affirm Spain's investment grade credit rating last week prompted a sharp rally in its bonds, cut the regions by one or two notches, citing their limited cash reserves and forthcoming bond repayments.

They included the northern region of Catalonia, which accounts for a fifth of Spain's economic output but is all but shut out of international markets, forcing it to request a state lifeline of just over 5 billion euros.

The downgrades added to market nerves over Spain, which were already starting to fray as Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's government holds off from seeking a bailout which would enable European Central Bank support for the country's bonds. Rajoy said on Friday after a European Union summit that he had still not decided whether to seek aid or not.

Traders and strategists expect Spanish yields to drift higher in coming days but ruled out a sharp sell-off in the debt given the prospect of eventual ECB intervention.

"Recent comments indicated that Prime Minister Rajoy has no real urgency to request a bailout and that has taken some steam off the rally and the downgrade of the regions is adding to the negative newsflow," Commerzbank strategist Michael Leister said.

"The market is realising that the momentum we had with a lot of events last week will most likely not be followed up by a quick aid request by Spain and that's prompting some profit- taking. We don't expect a sharp correction but a bit of a pullback."

Spanish 10-year yields were last 3 basis points up on the day at 5.55 percent. Earlier in the day, they rose to 5.59 percent, retreating from a six-month low of 5.297 plumbed on Friday after Moody's kept the country's sovereign rating one notch above 'junk' status.

Two-year yields popped back above the 3 percent mark they broke for the first time in over a month last week.

"I don't see much scope for much of a correction but the trigger for the next rally in peripheral bonds is we see Spain requesting aid. Until then markets are going to be rangebound," RIA Capital Markets strategist Nick Stamenkovic said.

COMPLACENCY

Spain still managed to sell up to 3.53 billion euros in short-term debt, with demand supported by the ECB's announcement that it plans to buy debt of up to three years' maturity under its new scheme. Three-month borrowing costs rose slightly while those for Spain's six-month treasury bills fell.

RBC strategists recommended buying shorter-dated Spanish bonds after a dip in the price, saying they still expected Spain to apply for a precautionary credit line in coming weeks that could trigger the ECB purchases.

"However, setbacks could become more severe in case political complacency hampers a financial assistance programme to be done and dusted before year-end, readying the ECB to intervene as of early 2013 when supply is picking up again," they cautioned in a note.

The fragile tone in peripheral debt prompted safe-haven German bonds to claw back some of last week's losses. Bund futures were last 18 ticks up on the day at 140.05 while cash 10-year Bund yields were last 2 bps lower at 1.60 percent.

Lloyds strategists expect 10-year Bund yields to hold within a 1.45-70 percent range, with a drift towards the upper end of the range going into Wednesday's German sale of 4 billion euros of 10-year bonds as traders push for cheaper prices.

"But as we approach the top of the range in yield, we think the better risk/ reward is to buy on dips on further weakness," they said in a note.

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TREASURIES-U.S. Treasury prices rise after Spain regions hit

LONDON | Tue Oct 23, 2012 7:00am EDT

LONDON Oct 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries rose on Tuesday along with German Bunds as a cut in credit ratings for five of Spain's indebted regions added to worries over the euro zone member's finances and concerns over global economic growth.

* U.S. 10-year government bond yields fell 2.3 basis points to 1.79 percent - reflecting demand for assets regarded as a safer play at times of a worsening economy. Yields have struggled to sustainably rise above a 200-day moving average around 1.805 percent, traders said.

* Treasury prices rebounded, along with German Bunds, after Moody's downgraded Spanish regions including economically important Catalonia. European stocks fell almost one percent in morning trade, weighed down by a batch of bearish corporate outlooks. U.S. stock index futures also pointed to a lower open.

* "It's more of a Bund-led rally and stocks (are) getting beat up a little bit, so it's basically a risk-off type (trade)," one trader said.

* Shorter-dated bond prices underperformed other maturities, as the market braced for supply later in the session, a second trader said.

* The Treasury Department sells 2-year notes later in the session, kicking off $99 billion worth of supply this week which also includes five-year notes on Wednesday and seven-year paper on Thursday.

* In the secondary market, two-year bond yields were flat at 0.31 percent, while five-year yields dipped 1.4 bps to 0.78 percent.

* Aside from auctions of Treasuries this week, investors were looking ahead to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, but many expect the central bank to hold off on fresh steps for now.

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UPDATE 1-UK's Hague tells Germans "less is more" on Europe

Tue Oct 23, 2012 7:01am EDT

* UK's Hague says EU "sucks up decision-making"

* Criticisms could further strain ties with Germany

* London rules out joining EU banking union

By Stephen Brown

BERLIN, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Britain's foreign secretary told Germany on Tuesday his country was more disillusioned than ever with the European Union and set out a vision of its future, based on the premise "less is more", that clashed directly with Berlin's plans for the euro zone.

William Hague dashed any hope of a conciliatory message to a key European partner which fears Britain is gradually withdrawing from the EU, saying Britons feel the Union "is a great machine that sucks up decision-making".

"This coalition government is committed to Britain playing a leading role in the EU but I must also be frank: public disillusionment with the EU in Britain is the deepest it has ever been," Hague said in a speech in Berlin.

His criticism, some of the strongest from London in recent months, could further strain ties between Britain and the EU's leading power. Berlin is increasingly irritated by the isolationist instincts of British Prime Minister David Cameron and the bulk of his Conservative lawmakers.

Hague faced direct pleas from his colleagues from Germany and Finland - countries at the heart of the currency union - to sign up to a pan-European banking union, and push for more joint EU foreign and defence policy.

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle warned him that while the EU welcomed dissenting views, the integration process could not wait for doubters.

"All are welcome to contribute their ideas. But if anyone does not want to come along or cannot come along, it will not prevent the rest from going on ahead," said Westerwelle.

"That goes for travel freedom in the Schengen zone, that goes for the common currency and I believe it also goes for common foreign aned security policy," he said.

Finland's Europe Minister, Alexander Stubb, speaking at the same conference, said: "William, please, join the banking union, don't sit on the fence - we need you."

LESS IS MORE

The reply was totally unambiguous.

"To join in a banking union with another currency - the currency of our friends, but another currency - would be an extremely difficult thing to do. That is why we will not be part of the banking union," Hague said.

He argued that national parliaments should have more power instead of beefing up the European Parliament, as Chancellor Angela Merkel has proposed, and said efforts to solve the euro zone debt crisis must not put the EU's single market at risk.

"Some proposals would severely curtail national democracy - issues like national budgets - forever," warned Hague, in what appeared to be a reference to Merkel's "fiscal compact" signed by all 27 EU member states except for Britain and the Czechs.

In contrast to Merkel's mantra that the answer to the euro zone debt crisis is "more Europe, not less Europe", Hague declared: "Sometimes less is more, less is better."

He said Britain - as the second largest net contributor to the EU budget - was at a loss to explain why there should be an increase beyond inflation in the EU's seven-year budget, a package worth around 1 trillion euros ($1.2 trillion).

"The EU would be stronger if it made more sense to people, by only acting where there was clear justification for action at the European level," he said.

Cameron is under pressure to claw back powers from the EU, or even pull Britain out of the bloc altogether, as anti-Europe sentiment mounts among many legislators in his party.

Finland's Stubb emphasised the value that country and the Germans placed on Britain's traditional influence in Europe as a free-marketeering counterweight to more interventionist and less fiscally-disciplined southern states like France.

But Stubb warned that current debate about referendums and treaty change in Europe could "corner" Britain, adding: "I think if the UK is marginalised or it marginalises itself, it will be bad for the UK and it will be bad for the European Union."

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