REFILE-Two Bank of England officials back rate rise, others firmly against - minutes

Written By Unknown on Rabu, 17 September 2014 | 18.12

Wed Sep 17, 2014 5:06am EDT

(Adds dropped word in first paragraph, removes duplicate word in paragraph 7)

LONDON, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Two Bank of England policymakers again voted to raise interest rates this month, leaving the central bank divided for a second successive month, but the rest of their colleagues remained firmly against tighter policy.

Minutes of the BoE Monetary Policy Committee's Sept. 3-4 meeting released on Wednesday showed that external members Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty voted to raise interest rates to 0.75 percent from their record-low 0.5 percent.

But the other seven members of the MPC saw no need to rush into the BoE's first rate rise since 2007, citing increased signs of weakness in the euro zone as well as weaker domestic housing activity, manufacturing and exports.

The MPC said that it was concerned that temporary weakness in the euro zone could turn into a prolonged period, and revive worries about the solvency of some euro zone governments.

"This could damage confidence and disrupt financial markets, and, as a result, the downside risks to UK growth in the medium term had probably increased," the MPC said.

The MPC made little mention of a referendum on Scottish independence due to take place on Sept. 18, beyond noting that it had triggered some volatility in foreign exchange markets.

Instead, it was more struck by a "remarkable" lack of volatility in markets - particularly for crude oil - against a backdrop of increased tension in Ukraine and the Middle East.

The BoE's staff had revised up their forecast for third-quarter growth to 0.9 percent - well above Britain's long-run average - but the MPC said they saw some signs of a slowdown in the fourth quarter, though they noted they had been wrong on this before.

The MPC also took increased interest in the growth of unit labour costs - how much workers produce for a given amount of salary - rather than official wage growth figures.

Average weekly earnings have been very weak, and the MPC said this could be partly due to the long-term unemployed re-entering the labour market in low-skilled work.

Unit labour cost developments - which blend wage growth with productivity - were more important for the inflation outlook, it said. For now, unit labour cost growth was well below rates that could trigger inflation pressure.

Even if wages picked up as workers became more experienced, this would not necessarily be an inflation problem if productivity improved.

Previously much of the MPC's commentary on inflation pressure has focused heavily on wage growth.

Price pressures appear muted, after figures on Tuesday showed inflation fell to just 1.5 percent in August - well below its 2 percent target - and wage rises have been even smaller.

BoE Governor Mark Carney said last week that central bank forecasts in August had shown that interest rates did not need to rise until the spring of 2015 to ensure that inflation remained on target for the foreseeable future. Wage growth was unlikely to exceed inflation until later that year, he added. (Reporting by David Milliken and Andy Bruce)

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