UPDATE 1-Weak industry, exports push UK towards another recession

Written By Unknown on Rabu, 27 Maret 2013 | 18.12

Wed Mar 27, 2013 6:34am EDT

By Olesya Dmitracova and Kate Holton

LONDON, March 27 (Reuters) - Sharp falls in industrial production and exports shrank Britain's overall output at the end of 2012, data confirmed on Wednesday, pushing the economy to the brink of a "triple-dip" recession.

The Office for National Statistics said that gross domestic product dropped 0.3 percent on the quarter in the October-December period. Compared with a year earlier, GDP grew 0.2 percent, slightly less than estimated earlier.

Separate fourth-quarter current account data showed that Britain's deficit with the rest of the world stood at 14.037 billion pounds ($21.3 billion), overshooting forecasts.

The already weak pound fell further after the releases.

"The current account figures show us that we're still terrible at exporting," said Alan Clarke, economist at Scotiabank. "I think the message is that while the UK's overseas export markets are in recession, a weaker pound isn't going to help much."

The economic contraction compared with the previous quarter was spurred by a 2.1 percent decline in industrial production - the biggest fall since the first quarter of 2009 - and a 2 percent slump in exports.

Wednesday's GDP figures showed that Britons' disposable income shrank 0.1 percent in real terms in the fourth quarter, but household spending help up, rising 0.4 percent. The household savings ratio fell to 6.7 percent.

If the economy shrinks again in 2013's first quarter, Britain will slip into its third recession since entering one in 2008, fuelled by the financial crisis.

News on the first quarter of 2013 has been mixed, with a sharp fall in manufacturing output in January but strong survey data on the dominant service sector in February. Analysts warn that the current spell of cold weather and snow could be enough to tip the fragile economy into recession.

Its fortunes will become clearer when the ONS publishes its index of services data for January on Thursday.

The latest economic forecasts by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility, used by the government, showed last week that Britain will eke out meagre 0.6 percent growth this year - half that it predicted only a few months ago.

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