Diberdayakan oleh Blogger.

Popular Posts Today

GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares pause as U.S jobs report looms, euro gains

Written By Unknown on Jumat, 03 Mei 2013 | 18.12

Fri May 3, 2013 5:19am EDT

* World shares flat as investors await U.S. jobs report

* Euro recovers from ECB rate cut sell-off

* Euro zone bond yields ease as ECB move boosts demand

* Central bank action supports commodities

By Richard Hubbard

LONDON, May 3 (Reuters) - A rally in global share markets halted on Friday as investors braced for monthly jobs data from the United States, while the euro recovered slightly from losses driven by the European Central Bank's decision to cut rates.

Analysts expect the April nonfarm payrolls report, due at 1230 GMT, to show American employers hired 145,000 people last month, up from March's dismal pace of 88,000 but not enough to erase fears the world's biggest economy is losing steam.

"I think we will see a weak payrolls number," said Fred Goodwin, cross-asset strategist at State Street.

"But we'll have to wait and see if that is a bad-news-is-good-news situation, or if the market will, at some point, begin to really take on board the fact that the data is weakening much more than they thought and it will be an adverse reaction."

The jobs data caps a big week for financial markets that has seen the U.S. Federal Reserve recommit to its aggressive monetary policy easing and the ECB cut rates to record lows and signal further policy easing may lie ahead.

The moves come just a month after the Bank of Japan promised to inject about $1.4 trillion into its economy to spur growth and end decades of deflation.

By increasing liquidity, three of the world's major central banks have fuelled a rally in share and bond markets that has driven many benchmark indexes back up to levels last seen before the financial crisis began, though their actions come in response to signs the global economic recovery is faltering.

MSCI's world equity index, which tracks prices in 45 countries, has risen to levels last seen in June 2008 and was holding steady around this peak on Friday.

Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index of leading shares dipped slightly but at 1,204.40 points was close to March's closing high of 1,207.83, which was its highest finish since August 2008.

However, Europe's STOXX 50 Volatility Index, which gauges investors appetite for equities, hit a six-week low on Friday, signalling that demand is likely to pick up following the ECB decision.

London's FTSE 100, Paris's CAC-40 and Frankfurt's DAX were all little changed on the day.

Earlier in Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up to end the week with gains of just over 1 percent, though trading was subdued with Tokyo closed for holidays.

EURO STEADIES

The euro was up against the dollar after a broad sell-off on Thursday when the ECB cut its main rate by a quarter percentage point to a record low of 0.5 percent, the first cut in 10 months. The bank also pledged to provide as much liquidity as the region's banks need well into next year.

The sell-off was closely linked to statements from ECB President Mario Draghi who said the bank could cope with the consequences of cutting its deposit rate below the current zero percent. Such a move would effectively charge banks to hold their money overnight, in a bid to encourage them to lend money and support the recession-hit euro area.

The single currency's gains on Friday came when an ECB policymaker, Ewald Nowotny, said the markets might have over-interpreted those comments about negative interest rates.

The euro was trading around $1.3125, up about 0.5 percent for the day, but well down on a two-month high of $1.3243 set on Wednesday.

The dollar meanwhile was weaker against a basket of major currencies as investors focused on whether the upcoming jobs report will add to concerns about the U.S. economy and boost bets on more monetary easing.

"If we have a weak number, expectations will grow for the Fed to act," said Geoffrey Yu, currency strategist at UBS.

The dollar index was down 0.1 percent at 82.15, though the greenback was steady against the yen at 98.05 yen due to the holiday in Japan.

DEBT DEMAND

Most euro zone bond yields were lower as the ECB decision to take action to improve the outlook for the region lifted demand for bonds offering higher returns than safe-haven German debt.

French, Austrian and Belgian 10-year yields fell to new record lows of 1.65 percent, 1.436 percent and 1.905 percent, respectively, while Spain's fell below 4 percent for the first time since October 2010.

The premium demanded by investors to hold 10-year Italian bonds compared with German bonds narrowed to its tightest since July 2011 at 251 basis points.

German 10-year yields were 2 bps higher at 1.18 percent, just above last July's record low of 1.126 percent.

"Inflation fears are basically vanishing, and investors are buying the whole euro zone fixed income," said Christian Lenk, rate strategist at DZ Bank in Frankfurt.

COMMODITIES

The proof provided by the ECB that the world's big central banks remain firmly committed to supporting their respective economies helped lift commodity markets.

Cooper was the standout performer, with a jump of more than 2 percent - its biggest rise in four months - while oil settled back to $102 a barrel.

However, commodities continue to heavily underperform the boom in stock markets. Analysts say that while stocks are being propelled by cheap central bank money, assets underpinned by raw materials remain linked to the weak economic data.

  • Link this
  • Share this
  • Digg this
  • Email
  • Reprints


18.12 | 0 komentar | Read More

EU sees deeper euro zone recession in 2013, slower deficit cuts

Fri May 3, 2013 5:02am EDT

* France seen in small recession in 2013

* Greek economic contraction seen marginally smaller

* France, Portugal, Italy to cut deficits more slowly

By Jan Strupczewski

BRUSSELS, May 3 (Reuters) - The euro zone economy will contract by more than expected this year and budget deficits will decline more slowly, the European Commission said on Friday as it set out forecasts for the next two years.

France, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands - four of the five largest euro zone economies - will be in recession through 2013, the Commission's forecasts showed, with only Germany, the largest euro zone economy, managing to eke out growth.

"In view of the protracted recession, we must do whatever it takes to overcome the unemployment crisis in Europe. The EU's policy mix is focused on sustainable growth and job creation," EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said.

"Fiscal consolidation is continuing, but its pace is slowing down. In parallel, structural reforms must be intensified to unlock growth in Europe."

The Commission said the euro zone economy would shrink 0.4 percent this year and grow 1.2 percent next year, revising down its projections from last February of a 0.3 percent recession and 1.4 percent growth respectively.

The forecast is roughly in line with the mid-point of the -0.9 to -0.1 percent range forecast for 2013 by the ECB in March, and the 0.0 to 2.0 percent growth range seen for 2014.

The expectations underline a shift of focus in the 17 countries that share the euro from sharp fiscal consolidation in the first years of the sovereign debt crisis to economic growth as earlier radical deficit cuts and European Central Bank action restored some market trust in euro zone finances.

Economic growth will be slower than thought in all the biggest euro zone countries, with France even dipping into a recession of 0.1 percent, rather than growing 0.1 percent as forecast in February, the Commission said.

The only positive change against the February forecasts was Greece, where the economy is now seen contracting 4.2 percent this year, rather than the previous 4.4 percent.

To reduce the negative impact of fiscal consolidation on growth, the overall euro zone budget deficit reduction will be marginally slower this year and next compared with forecast from three months ago. Country differences are bigger.

The aggregate euro zone deficit is to fall to 2.9 percent of gross domestic product this year and to 2.8 percent next year from 3.7 percent last year -- only 0.1 percentage point for each year less than previously envisaged.

But the slower consolidation will be most pronounced in Italy, which is now seen reducing its budget shortfall only to 2.9 percent of GDP this year from 3 percent in 2012, rather than to the 2.1 percent forecast in February.

The main reason for that is a deeper than expected recession this year and a more modest economic rebound in 2014, when Rome is to bring the budget gap down to 2.5 percent, against the earlier forecast 2.1 percent.

France, also in recession, is to have a budget shortfall of 3.9 percent this year and 4.2 percent in 2014 unless policies change, against earlier forecasts of 3.7 percent and 3.9 percent respectively.

Portugal, on a euro zone financial lifeline, will cut its budget deficit this year only to 5.5 percent of GDP from 6.4 percent last year because the recession there will be deeper than expected. The 2013 target in February was 4.9 percent.

  • Link this
  • Share this
  • Digg this
  • Email
  • Reprints


18.12 | 0 komentar | Read More

Update-Moody's downgrades ratings on the two junior notes in Spanish Unicaja Banco ABS SME transaction

Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.

NYSE and AMEX quotes delayed by at least 20 minutes. Nasdaq delayed by at least 15 minutes. For a complete list of exchanges and delays, please click here.


18.12 | 0 komentar | Read More

RPT-Slovenia reopens books for crucial dollar bond issue

Written By Unknown on Kamis, 02 Mei 2013 | 18.12

Thu May 2, 2013 5:03am EDT

By Davide Scigliuzzo

LONDON May 2 (Reuters) - Slovenia returned to the bond market on Thursday, seeking offers for a dual-tranche U.S. dollar issue at a slightly higher premium than initially intended, following a delay prompted by a Moody's downgrade to junk earlier this week.

The tiny Alpine euro zone state of two million is struggling to avoid a bailout because of its weak banks, a rising budget gap and a declining economy.

It delayed the bond sale on Tuesday after a two-notch cut by Moody's rating agency to Ba1 from Baa2. However, on Wednesday it said it would proceeding with the issue.

Market sources told Thomson Reuters market service IFR that Slovenia has set initial price guidance of around 5.125 percent for a five-year tranche and around 6.25 percent on a 10-year tranche, the sources said. The figures represent a premium of 12.5 basis points over the initial price guidance Slovenia had released for both tranches before the Moody's downgrade.

A successful sale could buy Slovenia time, at least until the end of this year, to start clearing the portfolios of its state-owned banks, sell some state assets and take action to reduce the budget deficit.

BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank and JP Morgan are the leads on the 144A/Reg S transaction, comprising both tranches, which are expected to launch and price today.

"The good news is that Slovenia still has access to the bond market, but a not so good news is that the yield is just too high," said Saso Stanovnik, an analyst at Ljubljana-based Alta Invest brokerage.

The Moody's downgrade followed weeks of criticism from investors, European Union officials and analysts that Prime Minister Alenka Bratusek's government had been too slow in revealing details of a bank clean up and austerity measures they say are required to shrink a budget gap swollen by recession.

The government would have done better to "put forward a reform plan and then raise money, not the other way round," Stanovnik said. "This way there is a risk that reforms might not be as fast as necessary as the government might not feel a strong enough pressure after having raised funds."

Another major rating agency, Standard & Poor's, told Reuters on Wednesday it still viewed Slovenia as an investment grade country and was "broadly confident" the government would implement reforms and overhaul public finances.

  • Link this
  • Share this
  • Digg this
  • Email
  • Reprints


18.12 | 0 komentar | Read More

EURO GOVT-French yields at record low as ECB rate cut eyed

Thu May 2, 2013 6:15am EDT

* ECB expected to cut refi rate to record low 0.5 pct

* Rate cut could prompt profit-taking in Bunds - traders

* Italy, Spanish bond yields fall

* Slovenia bond sale in focus after ratings cut

By Emelia Sithole-Matarise

LONDON, May 2 (Reuters) - French 10-year borrowing costs hit a record low on Thursday as expectations of an interest rate cut from the European Central Bank underpinned broad demand for euro zone government bonds.

The ECB's rate decision will come after the Federal Reserve said it would keep to its bond purchases, as anticipated, strengthening the view that monetary policy of major central banks will remain looser for longer than initially thought.

Euro zone bonds have rallied across the board in recent weeks on increased bets of further monetary easing from the ECB, which is widely expected to cut its main refinancing rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 0.5 percent on Thursday.

Lower-rated Italian and Spanish bonds, as well as slightly better-regarded French and Belgian paper, have benefited especially from investors hungry for higher returns than those offered by safe-haven German Bunds which were back near record lows.

Hours before the ECB decision, France sold a new benchmark 10-year bond at a record low interest rate of 1.81 percent at a solid auction of up to 7.93 billion euros of paper.

In the secondary market, French 10-year yields held around all-time lows of 1.70 percent hit on Tuesday.

"The auction went very well considering the rally heading into this sale with borrowing costs at new record lows and the periphery enjoying yet another positive session, in part emboldened by expectations that the ECB will cut rates," said Richard McGuire, a strategist at Rabobank.

"We think while that (rate cut) is unlikely to have much in the way of direct impact on growth it does signal that the ECB is willing to act in terms of shoring up growth within the region."

Italian 10-year yields were 6 basis points down at 3.84 percent while equivalent Spanish yields were 5 bps lower at 4.09 percent, both back at their lowest levels since October 2010.

SLOVENIA IN FOCUS

Safe-haven German Bund yields were 1 tick up at 1.21 percent, while the Bund future was 11 ticks lower at 146.47 as some investors booked profits after a rally this week lifted it near a record high of 146.89 reached in June 2012.

Traders said the Bund market already had largely priced in a quarter percentage point cut by the ECB, so Bunds, which were near their record highs, could fall even in the event of such a measure.

"A 25 basis point cut is probably fully priced to a degree so you may get a bit of profit-taking if they do cut rates," a trader said.

Traders were also paying more than usual attention to small euro zone member Slovenia as it reopened books on an offering of dollar-denominated bonds at a slightly higher yield after Moody's downgraded its credit rating to "junk'.

The country gained a bit of respite from Moody's rival Standard & Poor's which said on Wednesday it still viewed Slovenia as an investment grade country and was "broadly confident" the government would overhaul its finances.

  • Link this
  • Share this
  • Digg this
  • Email
  • Reprints


18.12 | 0 komentar | Read More

PRESS DIGEST-Canada-May 2

Thu May 2, 2013 6:19am EDT

May 2 (Reuters) - The following are the top stories from selected Canadian newspapers. Reuters has not verified these stories and does not vouch for their accuracy.

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

* Canadian banks and other financial institutions should be required to find out the beneficial owners of corporations or trusts that are transferring money overseas, according to recommendations in a new report on tax evasion by Parliament's finance committee. ()

* The Parti Québécois, which has come under attack in recent months for cutting social programs, says it will reconsider a commitment to eliminating Quebec's deficit. ()

Reports in the business section:

* Ottawa and Canadian dairy farmers have bowed to pressure from the fast-food industry and will let thousands of pizza restaurants buy heavily discounted mozzarella cheese. ()

* Tim Hortons Inc is under pressure from an activist investor that wants the company to pare back its U.S. growth and borrow billions to fund a share buyback. ()

* An Ontario Superior Court judge has sided with Chevron Corp and tossed out an attempt by lawyers for Amazonian villagers trying to use Canadian courts to collect on a controversial $19 billion judgment leveled against the company in Ecuador over oil pollution. ()

NATIONAL POST

* B.C.'s police watchdog on Wednesday officially cleared the Prince George RCMP of any criminal wrongdoing for shooting dead Gregory Matters, a 40-year-old Bosnia veteran suffering from post-traumatic stress, in an altercation at his rural home. ()

* Amid calls from one high ranking government official to develop the Toronto waterfront "faster and harder", the head of the agency in charge of revitalization signaled it wants the power to borrow money in the future. ()

FINANCIAL POST

* Canada's banks rank their prudential regulator, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), ahead of other regulators domestically and abroad when it comes to the relationship between the watchdog and the financial institutions, according to The Strategic Counsel, an independent research firm. ()

* The acquittal in January of three former Nortel Networks' executives on fraud charges prompted questions inside the RCMP about the force's ability to tackle future white-collar investigations. ()

  • Link this
  • Share this
  • Digg this
  • Email
  • Reprints


18.12 | 0 komentar | Read More

UPDATE 1-Thousands rally against European austerity in May Day protests

Written By Unknown on Rabu, 01 Mei 2013 | 18.12

Wed May 1, 2013 5:46am EDT

By Renee Maltezou and Clare Kane

ATHENS/MADRID May 1 (Reuters) - Trains and ferries were cancelled and hospital staff walked off the job in Greece on Wednesday and thousands were due to demonstrate across Spain as May Day triggered protests against harsh government spending cuts.

Separately, Turkish riot police fired water cannon and tear gas to disperse crowds gathering in central Istanbul for a rally on what has become a traditional labour holiday.

In Spain, where the unemployment rate stands at a record 27 percent, the two largest trade unions, CCOO and UGT, called on workers and the unemployed to join over 80 demonstrations across the country.

In a column in financial newspaper El Economista, CCOO Secretary General Igancio Fernandez Toxo criticised the government's "huge irresponsibility" in allowing unemployment to rise to such levels.

Candido Mendez, head of UGT, said having more than 6 million people unemployed meant there had "never been a May 1 with more reason to take to the streets".

In Athens, about 1,000 policemen were deployed to handle any violence during rallies and strikes called by public and private sector unions.

It is the latest in a long line of strikes and protests in the debt-laden country ravaged by its sixth year of recession and popular fury over wage and spending cuts.

"Our message today is very clear: Enough with these policies which hurt people and make the poor poorer," Ilias Iliopoulos, general secretary of public sector union ADEDY, told Reuters.

"The government must take back the austerity measures, people can't take it anymore."

Participation, however, was expected to be well below the levels of major protests last year when as many as 100,000 Greeks marched to the central Syntagma square chanting slogans.

Unions themselves expected turnout to be low in Greece with the traditional May 1 holiday falling just a few days before Greek Orthodox Easter, which meant public schools were shut and many workers had already left for vacation.

Public transport in Athens was disrupted with buses and subways halted, while ships and ferries stayed docked at ports after seamen also walked off the job. Bank and hospital workers also joined the one-day strike.

Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has sought to maintain a hard line against striking workers in a bid to show European Union and International Monetary Fund lenders - as well as the public - that he is determined to push through unpopular reforms.

TURKEY, RUSSIA

In Istanbul, thousands of police were stationed across the city centre to block access to the main Taksim square as crowds of protesters converged in different parts of the city early in the morning attempting to storm police barricades.

The incidents followed the pattern of recent years, when May Day demonstrations in Turkey's largest city have often been marked by clashes between police and protesters.

Authorities often use force to prevent the rally happening in the centre of the city, having this year already denied large trade unions permission to march on Taksim, saying major construction work there would make it too dangerous.

Two officers were wounded by stones and metal objects thrown at police lines, state-run TRT television said, citing the Istanbul governor's office.

In Russia, around 1.5 million Russians were expected to participate in May 1 parades - a fraction of the millions that used to march in the Soviet times.

  • Link this
  • Share this
  • Digg this
  • Email
  • Reprints


18.12 | 0 komentar | Read More

UPDATE 1-Fund set to win stake in Greece's OPAP after higher bid

Wed May 1, 2013 6:00am EDT

* Emma Delta sole bidder for a 33 pct stake

* Czech-Greek fund initially offered 622 mln euro

* Had until May 1 to improve bid

* Privatisation agency to meet 1100 GMT to decide on offer

ATHENS, May 1 (Reuters) - Investment fund Emma Delta has met Athens' demand to raise its offer for a stake in gambling monopoly OPAP, sources said, meaning Greece could seal its first big privatisation as early as May 1.

Athens needs to wrap up the sale to show it is finally making good on long-promised efforts to sell off state assets and cut debt as demanded by its European Union/International Monetary Fund bailout.

The Czech-Greek fund, sole bidder in the race to buy a 33 percent stake and management rights in OPAP, raised its offer to 650 million euros, officials involved in the sale told Reuters.

Another official directly involved in the process said that Athens was now ready to close the deal.

"Barring any surprises, we'll clinch it today", the Greek official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

The fund initially offered 622 million for Greece's most profitable firm but Athens gave it until Wednesday to improve its offer to at least 650 million as it sought to keep the sale process on track.

Emma Delta is controlled by Czech investor Jiri Smejc and Greek ship owner George Melisanidis. Other fund investors include Greek entrepreneur Christos Copelouzos, Russian investment firm ICT Group and Czech-based investment fund KKCG.

  • Link this
  • Share this
  • Digg this
  • Email
  • Reprints


18.12 | 0 komentar | Read More

RPT-Fitch: New Italian Government Faces Economic, Reform Challenges

Wed May 1, 2013 6:21am EDT

(Repeat for additional subscribers)

May 1 (Reuters) - (The following statement was released by the rating agency)

The formation of a new government is positive for Italy, but the sovereign has very limited fiscal headroom and the coalition government may not be strong enough, or last long enough, to deliver the structural economic reforms needed to increase trend growth, Fitch Ratings says.

The coalition's broad base and large majorities in confidence votes in both parliamentary chambers should enable a resumption of proactive policy making after a two-month hiatus. It draws support from the centre-left Democratic Party, the centre-right People of Freedom Party, and members of former Prime Minister Mario Monti's Civic Choice party.

But the fragility of the new left-right coalition limits the scope for meaningful reform that could raise Italy's low potential GDP growth. Prime Minister Enrico Letta has committed the new government to electoral reform and measures to tackle youth unemployment, but major structural economic reforms may prove elusive.

The recession in Italy is one of the deepest in the eurozone and so far there are hardly any signs of a recovery. Furthermore, the medium-term potential growth rate of the Italian economy is low even by European standards; Fitch estimates it to be around 1%.

Letta's first outline of his government's programme, in a speech to Parliament on Monday, lacked important detail on how major tax reductions will be funded. A planned suspension of June payments under the country's recently introduced housing tax ahead of a broader review of property taxes, combined with the abolition of a 1pp VAT increase in July, would reduce revenue by around EUR6bn this year.

Letta did not specify what, if any, measures would offset the lost revenue, but he did say the new government was committed to meeting its budget commitments and controlling the public finances. It will also be fiscally bound by the Fiscal Compact and last year's constitutional amendment requiring the government to achieve a balanced structural budget by 2013.

We would anticipate more detail in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, in its 2013 Stability Programme the previous government forecast a budget deficit of 2.9% of GDP in early April 2013, including around 0.5pp contributed by government arrears payments to boost domestic demand, while reiterating the commitment to keep the deficit below 3%. This illustrates that despite substantial progress on consolidation, Italy has very limited fiscal headroom. As we said when we downgraded Italy to 'BBB+' with a Negative Outlook on 8 March, economic and fiscal outturns that reduced confidence that public debt would be placed on a firm downward path from 2014 after peaking this year would increase pressure on the sovereign rating.

Letta's speech also outlined some initial reform proposals to boost employment and growth, such as reducing hiring tax for young employees. This emphasis on reform is encouraging, but making the Italian economy sufficiently flexible to boost trend growth remains challenging. On labour law, for example, it is not yet clear whether the previous administration's reforms have been effective, and Letta's speech did not refer to liberalising closed professions.

  • Link this
  • Share this
  • Digg this
  • Email
  • Reprints


18.12 | 0 komentar | Read More

RPT-Fitch Rates Xinyuan's Notes Final 'B+'

Written By Unknown on Senin, 29 April 2013 | 18.12

Mon Apr 29, 2013 6:07am EDT

April 29 (Reuters) - (The following statement was released by the rating agency)

Fitch Ratings has assigned US-listed China-based Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd.'s (Xinyuan) senior unsecured USD200m 13.25% notes a final 'B+' rating. The assignment of the final rating follows the receipt of documents conforming to information already received, and is in line with the expected rating assigned on 18 April 2013.

Key Rating Drivers

Financial strength balances scale: Xinyuan's rating is dependent on its financial strength remaining solid, especially in maintaining sufficient cash to meet short-term debt obligations. Its small scale constrains its business diversity in terms of a narrow product mix, limited geographical spread, and a small number of projects being sold in a year relative to peers. Xinyuan's low EBITDA margin of about 13% on a five-year rolling average basis reflects that it is susceptible to sudden sharp home price swings, such as that in 2008.

Asset-light small homebuilder: Xinyuan's small holding of property development assets gives its creditors less protection in the event of asset liquidation. Its land bank by saleable gross floor area (GFA) of 1.2 million square metres (sqm) at end-2012 was less than the size of similarly rated peers. Even including the new land Xinyuan is close to acquiring, its land bank will still be less than half of that of its peers. Further, its land acquisition strategy will continue to focus on fast-growing second and third tier cities with a concentration on Henan Province. Xinyuan's contracted sales of CNY5.2bn in 2012 were, however, comparable to other 'B+' rated Chinese homebuilders.

Land cost affects margin: Xinyuan's high proportion of land cost versus its selling price kept profit margin low. Land cost has been between 20% and 30% of its average selling price (ASP). This is compared with less than 20% for most Chinese homebuilders. The higher proportion of land cost was in part due to its land being acquired in land auctions and also partly because Xinyuan's fast turnover business model does not allow for much land price appreciation, given the short lead time between land acquisition and the start of presales. However, the company aims to mitigate this by acquiring land plots through negotiated land auctions, whereby land costs may be closer to 20% of ASP.

Healthy credit metrics: Xinyuan has been in a net cash position since 2011. Its low inventory levels are a result of its high asset turnover strategy, thus minimising investments in development properties. The company's 2012 contracted sales/total debt ratio of 2.7x was the highest among Fitch-rated Chinese homebuilders.

Replicating home base success: Xinyuan has developed 24 projects since 2001, 16 of which are in Zhengzhou. Since 2007, Xinyuan has replicated its successful Zhengzhou developments in other cities. This has helped the company to gain new markets in Jinan, Suzhou, Xuzhou, Kunshan and Chengdu; and Xinyuan's business in the first three of these cities continues to expand with growth opportunities.

Undergoing faster expansion: Xinyuan has gone through financial consolidation between 2008 and 2012 in the face of market uncertainty. Its financial strength makes it an attractive strategic partner to local land authorities for participation in early stage land development. This will help Xinyuan undergo a faster pace of land acquisition in Zhengzhou.

Rating Sensitivities

Negative: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action include:

- reduction of scale as reflected by a fall in GFA land bank to less than two years

- contracted sales falling below CNY5bn

- net debt/adjusted inventory rising above 25%

- changes to its fast turnover model where contracted sales/gross debt fall below 1.5x

Positive: Positive rating action is not expected in the next 18-24 months due to Xinyuan's small operational scale and lack of business diversification. However, future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action include:

- significant increase in scale as reflected by contracted sales exceeding CNY15bn

- increase in business diversification by geography, by product mix as well as in presence in a greater number of cities

- maintaining a strong financial profile

  • Link this
  • Share this
  • Digg this
  • Email
  • Reprints


18.12 | 0 komentar | Read More
techieblogger.com Techie Blogger Techie Blogger