EMERGING MARKETS-Rouble leads emerging currency losses on rate cut hints

LONDON, April 17 (Reuters) - The prospect of deeper interest rate cuts took Russia's rouble more than 2 percent lower on Friday, knocking it off 4-1/2-month highs against the dollar, while Russian equity markets also slipped.

The rouble touched a low of 51.2 per dollar after central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina said late on Thursday the currency had found its equilibrium and its appreciation provided a basis for further rate cuts.

After slumping to around 80 per dollar in late 2014, the rouble has rallied as the oil market shows signs of having bottomed out and fighting in eastern Ukraine between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian government forces has eased.

"The rouble has appreciated so much recently that from the point of view of the central bank and government it makes sense to try and cap it so as not to erode too much the competitiveness gains they got from the depreciation," said Sebastien Barbe, head of emerging market strategy at Credit Agricole in Paris.

After markets close on Friday, Standard & Poor's and Fitch are due to publish ratings for Russia. Downgrades are seen as unlikely because of the more stable economic conditions seen in recent months.

Russian dollar-denominated stocks fell 1.5 percent and the rouble index also slipped as oil prices came down from 2015 highs, but they are up some 16 percent this month. The likelihood of rate cuts may boost local bonds though, with 10-year yields touching a new 4-1/2 month low around 10.3 percent.

Broader emerging market stocks also paused in a rally that earlier took the MSCI emerging markets index to a new seven-month high.

Though the benchmark gave up earlier gains to fall 0.2 percent, it was still headed for a third consecutive weekly gain after lackluster economic data in the United States persuaded more investors a rate hike from the Federal Reserve is less imminent than once thought.

The Asia Pacific ex-Japan index eased 0.2 percent but stayed near seven-year highs after a 2.3 percent gain for Shanghai shares.

In emerging Europe, Turkish stocks rose 0.8 percent while the lira fell 0.3 percent approaching the record lows hit earlier this week on back of pre-election tensions.

Hungary's forint remained under pressure near a three-week low against the euro after the European Union suspended a development fund payment over concerns about how Budapest allocated the money. Hungarian stocks also slipped, led by a 0.75 percent loss for its biggest bank, OTP.

For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance 2015, see link.reuters.com/jus35t

For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance 2015, see link.reuters.com/weh36s

For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging Europe performance 2015, see link.reuters.com/jun28s

For GRAPHIC on MSCI frontier index performance 2015, see link.reuters.com/zyh97s

For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see

For TURKISH market report, see

For RUSSIAN market report, see ) (Additional reporting by Sujata Rao; Editing by Mark Trevelyan)

18.12 | 0 komentar | Read More

Britain postpones bill sale due to platform supplier problems

LONDON, April 17 (Reuters) - The UK debt management office postponed a tender of treasury bills on Friday citing technical issues with a third party platform supplier.

The UK DMO said it would make a further announcement at 1200 BST (1100 GMT), and that any bids already submitted would be deemed null and void.

Traders told Reuters that Bloomberg terminals were experiencing an outage on Friday morning. Bloomberg could not be immediately reached for comment. (Reporting by John Geddie; editing by John Stonestreet)

18.12 | 0 komentar | Read More

'Reform or stimulus' policy divide grows as China slows

* China aims for 7 pct growth in 2015, a quarter-century low

* Some policy advisers calling for more stimulus

* Others call for structural reforms for sustainable growth

* Concern that monetary stimulus fuelling speculative bubble

By Kevin Yao

BEIJING, April 17 (Reuters) - With China's economic growth heading for a quarter-century low, think-tanks and advisers to the government are polarising into those calling for more stimulus to arrest the slowdown and a rival camp emphasising structural reforms as the route to sustainable growth.

The debate among the think-tanks, which influence decision-making but do not wield direct power, is reflected in the ambivalent mood music coming from China's leaders, who accept the need to adapt to a "new normal" of slower but better quality growth, while fretting that a deeper downturn could fuel debt defaults, unemployment and social unrest.

To prevent growth from dipping below 7 percent, some economists are urging Beijing to step up policy support on top of the two interest rate cuts since November and a reduction in the level of deposits banks must hold in reserve.

"Employment is a lagging indicator; if the slowdown persists, it will definitely affect employment," said a senior economist at a well-connected think-tank who declined to be named.

"We still need to cut interest rates, bank reserve ratios and taxes, (and) the exchange rate should become more flexible."

Employment is for now holding up despite signs of rising job losses in some regions, including the rust-belt northeastern provinces, which Premier Li Keqiang visited last week, pledging to "stand up to" the downward pressure on the economy.

"The real downward pressure may be even bigger than the headline figures," said an economist who advises the government.

"The biggest difficulty is not slowdown itself. Many debt-laden firms cannot repay bank loans, and we must boost the money supply as quickly as possible to reduce real interest rates."

The economist called for deeper cuts to banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR) this year, probably by 3-4 percentage points from the current 19.5 percent, and some yuan depreciation to help exporters.

Despite the rate cuts and lower RRR, falling inflation has kept real borrowing costs high.

Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at the Industrial Bank, has also called for yuan depreciation to support growth, but China's leaders are concerned it would encourage a further outflow of capital. Premier Li has ruled it out, even as he conceded that the 2015 growth target won't be easy.

"They will have to cut interest rates and RRR and boost investment, which may only provide a short relief for the economy but cannot change the downward trend," said Lu.

BOOST OR BUBBLE?

But other advisers say Beijing should tolerate lower growth, chastened by the experience of its last heavy stimulus programme after the global financial crisis, which saddled state-owned enterprises and local authorities with a mountain of debt, run up sometimes for projects of doubtful value.

These advisers argue that reforms to make the economy more efficient and responsive to market signals, which in the short term means letting weak companies fail and unproductive jobs evaporate, will produce better quality growth, while excessive stimulus could promote dangerous asset bubbles.

"They (leaders) are worried about the economy, but policy steps have limited effectiveness due to excessive investment in the past," said an economist with a think-tank affiliated to the National Development Reform Commission, the top planning agency.

Cai Fang, vice head of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), a government think-tank, also wants more emphasis on reforms. He advocates relaxing rules on family planning and the household registration system, which ties people's access to services to their residential status.

"We have used a variety of approaches to appropriately stimulate economic growth, but they are apparently not very useful," he told a high-level conference last month.

"That will make policymakers realise that they cannot use traditional means to boost economic growth potentials and must look to reforms to unleash dividends."

Those dividends should include government's long-term goal of reducing the burden of debt in the economy, while excessive stimulus risks further inflating speculative bubbles.

"If we pump out more money through monetary policy, it will spur further crazy rises in the stock market," said another CASS economist. "The government is riding a tiger." (Editing by Will Waterman)

18.12 | 0 komentar | Read More

Putin sees return to growth in Russia in under 2 years

MOSCOW, April 16 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday Russia's economy could return to growth in less than two years, even though he considers it unlikely that the West will lift economic sanctions over the Ukraine crisis soon.

In a televised call-in with the nation, Putin acknowledged that there were difficulties for Russia's economy, which has been hit by a fall in global oil prices as well as the sanctions.

But, asked about a prediction he made earlier that the economy could return to growth in two years, he said: "With what we are seeing now, the strengthening of the rouble and the growth in the markets ... I think that it may happen faster ... but somewhere in the region of two years."

Putin has made clear that he largely blames the West for Russia's economic problems, including the weak rouble, higher inflation and falling revenues.

The central bank expects the economy to contract by 3.5 to 4 percent this year and by 1 to 1.6 percent in 2016.

Sitting at a desk in a television studio in front of rows of telephone operators taking calls from viewers, Putin said the sanctions were politically motivated by Western powers which he accused of wanting to "contain" Russia.

"I think they do not relate directly to events in Ukraine," he said, adding the sanctions had remained in place even though Russia believed Kiev was to blame for the failure to implement a ceasefire deal fully in east Ukraine.

He said he had recently discussed the sanctions with business leaders.

"I told them we can hardly expect sanctions to be lifted now because they are purely political," he said.

Putin's ratings in Russia have soared since the country annexed the Crimea peninsula from Ukraine just over a year ago but relations with the West are at their lowest point since the Cold War ended nearly a quarter of a century ago.

Western leaders say they have overwhelming evidence that Moscow has provided pro-Russian separatists fighting Ukrainian government forces in east Ukraine with soldiers and weapons. Russia denies this and says the West was behind the overthrow of a Moscow-backed Ukrainian president in February 2014.

Putin, 62, has held a call-in almost every year since he was first elected president in 2000, answering questions on issues ranging from local housing problems to regional and international conflicts.

They have often been marathon performances, the longest lasting 4 hours 47 minutes in 2013, and been used by Putin to show he is in command and ready to address the people's problems, large or small. (Additional reporting by Elizabeth Piper, Vladimir Soldatkin, Lidia Kelly, Andrey Kuzmin, Polina Devitt, Jack Stubbs, Jason Bush and Maria Tsvetkova; Writing by Timothy Heritage; Editing by Elizabeth Piper)

18.12 | 0 komentar | Read More

Russia's Putin says S-300 sale prompted by Iran's flexibility in talks

MOSCOW, April 16 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday Iran's willingness and flexibility in trying to find a solution with the West over its nuclear programme had spurred his decision to renew a contract to deliver an S-300 missile defence system to Tehran.

But the president, in his annual televised call-in show, said Russia would still work "as one" with its partners in the United Nations over Iran and that deliveries of the S-300 would work as a deterrent in the Middle East.

"And now with the progress of the Iranian nuclear track - and that is obviously positive - we do not see any reason to continue to keep the ban (on the delivery of the S-300) unilaterally," he said. (Additional reporting by Elizabeth Piper, Vladimir Soldatkin, Lidia Kelly, Andrey Kuzmin, Polina Devitt, Jack Stubbs, Jason Bush and Maria Tsvetkova; Writing by Elizabeth Piper, editing by Timothy Heritage)

18.12 | 0 komentar | Read More

Greek budget revenues beat target in March-deputy finance minister

ATHENS, April 16 (Reuters) - Greece's ordinary budget revenues in March stood at 4.2 billion euros, beating the country's target of 3.2 billion euros, deputy Finance Minister Dimitris Mardas told reporters on Thursday.

Ordinary net budget revenues exclude receipts from social security organisations and local governments. The figure differs from the one monitored by Greece's EU/IMF lenders but indicates the country's progress in repairing its finances.

Greece suffered a revenue shortfall in January and February because of lower tax receipts and is dangerously close to running out of cash in the coming weeks. (Reporting by Lefteris Papadimas; Writing Karolina Tagaris, editing by Deepa Babington)

18.12 | 0 komentar | Read More

UPDATE 1-MOVES-Movaghar becomes BAML's CEEMEA DCM head, Presley joins

(Adds Presley's replacement at Credit Suisse)

By Michael Turner

LONDON, April 15 (IFR) - Bank of America Merrill Lynch has appointed Karim Movaghar to head its CEEMEA debt capital markets team and has hired Josh Presley from Credit Suisse to work on the syndicate desk, according to an internal memo seen by IFR.

Movaghar will report to Fernando Vicario and Marc Tempelman, co-heads of EMEA corporate banking and DCM. He replaces the recently departed Alex von Sponeck.

Movaghar has been BAML's head of emerging market and corporate debt syndicate since 2011, and before that was at Morgan Stanley.

Meanwhile Josh Presley will join the US house as a director, focusing on emerging market and corporate transactions.

Based in London, Presley will report to Jeff Tannenbaum.

At Credit Suisse, David Anthony, who is already on the syndicate desk covering corporates, will take on Presley's old responsibilities, according to a bank spokesperson. (Reporting By Sudip Roy, writing by Michael Turner; editing by Alex Chambers, Julian Baker)

18.12 | 0 komentar | Read More

Germany declines comment on Greek bankruptcy plan report

BERLIN, April 15 (Reuters) - The German government declined comment on Wednesday on a story in German weekly Die Zeit which said Berlin was working on a plan that would allow Greece to receive financing from the European Central Bank even if it missed payments to creditors.

"The plan under discussion is aimed at allowing he ECB to continue financing of Greece in the event of bankruptcy," the Zeit article said. "In addition, Greek banks would be restructured, allowing them to continue to take part in central bank operations even after a state bankruptcy."

The article said that in exchange, Athens would have to show a readiness to cooperate and fulfill its reform obligations. (Writing by Noah Barkin; Editing by Caroline Copley)

18.12 | 0 komentar | Read More

China's central bank asked lenders to check margin trading risk - memo

BEIJING, April 15 (Reuters) - The Shanghai branch of China's central bank has ordered commercial lenders to check for risks in their margin trading business, according to a memo obtained by Reuters.

The move comes after margin trading soared among brokerages, prompting regulators to clamp down on risky behaviour earlier this year.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) ordered commercial banks to provide their margin trading accounts and a list of connected wealth management products, according to the document and two sources with direct knowledge. This was supposed to have been completed by the end of March.

In the second half of 2014, margin trading increased rapidly in Shanghai and Shenzhen, with data showing that banks are one of the main sources of margin finance funding, according to the memo. As a result, there was a need to ensure the business is transparent and control risks, it added.

The PBOC asked commercial banks to report risks and the measures that they will adopt to handle them.

The Shanghai branch of the PBOC could not be reached for comment.

"Last year, the PBOC started to tighten control over the WMP market, as proceeds from WMP were inappropriately invested, making the central bank's loan and deposit data less accurate," one of the sources with direct knowledge said.

(Reporting by Li Zheng in Beijing and Engen Tham in Shanghai; Editing by Nick Macfie)

18.12 | 0 komentar | Read More

UPDATE 1-Russian navy ships in English Channel on way to drills

(Recasts with statement)

MOSCOW, April 14 (Reuters) - Russian navy vessels entered the English Channel on Tuesday on their way to the northern Atlantic for anti-aircraft and anti-submarine defence drills, the Northern Fleet said.

The squadron, led by the Severomorsk anti-submarine ship, had carried out drills in the Bay of Biscay and will later head for the northeastern Atlantic, a spokesman for the Northern Fleet said in a statement.

Russia's Interfax news agency had reported that the squadron would hold drills in the English Channel but the fleet's statement did not confirm this.

It is not unusual to have Russian warships in the Channel. NATO dismissed in November a Russian media report that a squadron of Russian warships had conducted military exercises there.

Relations between Russia and the West have sunk to post-Cold War lows since the start of the crisis in Ukraine. (Reporting by Gabriela Baczynska, editing by Elizabeth Piper)

18.12 | 0 komentar | Read More